Arsenal had 74% of the ball and one shot on target. Madueke's deflected strike at 80' was enough.
The numbers
| Arsenal | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | 74% | 26% |
| Shots | 9 | 14 |
| On target | 1 | 2 |
| xG | 1.14 | 0.9 |
| Touches in opp. box | 30 | 17 |
| Crosses | 27 | 14 |
| Corners | 6 | 8 |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 70% |
| Tackles | 9 | 22 |
Result the chances deserved: Arsenal 41% / 30% / Nottingham Forest 29% (Poisson).
Starting line-ups
Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Raya, White, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori, Rice, Guimarães, Saka, Ødegaard, Eze, Havertz.
Nottingham Forest (3-4-2-1): Sels, Cunha, Diomande, Murillo, Muñoz, McAtee, Schlager, Williams, Ndoye, Domínguez, Delap.
Forest subs: Kalimuendo (73', Ndoye), Sangaré (74', Domínguez), Wood & Hudson-Odoi (85', for Cunha & McAtee). Forest coach: Oliver Glasner. Shape listed as 3-4-2-1 by FotMob, which puts McAtee in midfield and Domínguez behind Delap; Sports Mole lists them the other way round. Gibbs-White was not in the squad.
Cards: Williams (17') and Madueke (53'). Attendance 30,893 (FotMob).
Key moments, move by move
- Rice, with Arsenal camped in Forest's half, finds Madueke on the left.
- Madueke, on at half-time, had beaten his man on the outside a couple of times; this time he comes inside.
- From the left side of the box he shoots with his right foot, a low-value chance (0.06 xG, Sofascore).
- Cunha's leg deflects it and wrong-foots Sels: Arsenal's only shot on target of the game.
74% of the ball against a back five, one shot on target
- Forest's block: a 3-4-2-1 (FotMob) that dropped into a back five. Arsenal had 74% of the ball, 629 passes and 76 entries into the final third to Forest's 33 (Sofascore), but no shot on target in the first half (Sky Sports).
- Crosses into five defenders: Arsenal crossed 27 times and found a team-mate seven times (Sofascore). Forest made 29 clearances and 22 tackles to Arsenal's 12 and nine. Saka was often met by two players (Goal).
- The half-time change: Madueke replaced Eze at 46'. He said he had beaten his man on the outside a few times before he came inside to shoot (NBC Sports); Rice's pass set him up at 80' (FotMob).
- Forest's chances: 14 shots to Arsenal's nine, but two on target and six blocked (Sofascore). Their best openings came from Calafiori's mistake at 19' and late pressure: Rice blocked Wood at 89' and Murillo curled wide at 90+2' (Sky Sports).
Tactical scenes
Forest got the ball forward quickly and shot from the edge of the box whenever they could. Arsenal kept bodies between ball and goal: Konsa blocked Delap at 35', Rice blocked Wood at 89', and Konsa's late challenge stopped Delap again in stoppage time.
Evidence: Forest had 14 shots to Arsenal's nine, but six were blocked and only two were on target (Sofascore). Gabriel made three blocks and six clearances (Sofascore); Raya needed only two saves. Forest's xG was 0.90 (FotMob). Sofascore match report and stats · FotMob match page
Before the goal, Arsenal's clearest looks came from Rice's deliveries. His free-kick found Havertz, who headed over at 37'; his corner found Gabriel, who headed over at 67'. Arsenal won the aerial battle but did not hit the target.
Evidence: Arsenal won 19 of 33 aerial duels; Gabriel won five of nine and his two shots were worth 0.36 xG, about a third of Arsenal's 1.14 (Sofascore, FotMob). Arsenal had six corners and still have no set-piece goal in the league this season (FotMob). Sofascore match report and stats · FotMob: Arsenal team stats
Recreate it in FM26
Arsenal · Arsenal's slow squeeze on a back five · 4-2-3-1Show cardHide card
Arsenal's slow squeeze on a back five
| Pos | Player | In Possession | Out of Possession |
|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Raya | Ball-Playing Goalkeeper | Sweeper Keeper |
| RB | White | Full-Back | Full-Back |
| RCB | Konsa | Centre-Back | Stopping Centre-Back |
| LCB | Gabriel | Ball-Playing Centre-Back | Covering Centre-Back |
| LB | Calafiori | Inverted Full-Back | Full-Back |
| RDM | Rice | Deep-Lying Playmaker | Defensive Midfielder |
| LDM | Guimarães | Box-to-Box Midfielder | Pressing Defensive Midfielder |
| RW | Saka | Winger | Tracking Winger |
| AM | Ødegaard | Advanced Playmaker | Tracking Attacking Midfielder |
| LW | Eze | Inside Forward | Winger |
| ST | Havertz | Centre Forward | Tracking Centre Forward |
Team instructions
In Possession
- Passing DirectnessShorter
- Attacking TransitionPatient Build-Up
- Attacking WidthWider
- DribblingEncouraged
Out of Possession
- Defensive LineHigher
- Defensive TransitionCounter-Press
- Cross EngagementContest
The idea: A patient 4-2-3-1 that keeps the ball around a back five with both wingers wide. It needs a winger who beats the first man quickly, an Inside Forward on the isolated side, because crosses alone feed the centre-backs.
What FM26 can't copy: The game turned on a half-time change and a deflection, and FM26 can't set either as a team instruction.
Our reading of this match in FM26 terms, not an exported tactic file. Role names as in FM26.
What if? Replay it with a different plan
Our best alternative plan: Gyökeres on at 46' (for Havertz), not 66', Dowman on at 66' (for Saka). Keep the 4-2-3-1 but bring the runners on earlier: Gyökeres at half-time with Madueke, and a fresh dribbler on the right after an hour. Arsenal won anyway; the aim is a second clear chance before 80'. It moves Arsenal's win chance from 41% to 46% (xG 1.14–0.90 becomes 1.29–0.90). Try your own changes to formation, pressing, approach and substitutions.
The game-changer Arsenal needed
Max Dowman
The goal came when a winger beat his man and shot. Saka was doubled up all day; Dowman, a dribbler who goes at defenders, would have given Arsenal a second player who attacks the first man on the right.
Harry Kane
Arsenal had 30 touches in Forest's box and one shot on target. Kane drops deep to link play against a packed box and hits the target from few chances, the thing this game lacked until the 80th minute.
What the analysts said
“We knew the margins would be small unless you open up the game much earlier.”Mikel Arteta (Sky Sports)
“The longer the game goes on, they have more belief. You have to take more risks, and that's when the game can break.”Mikel Arteta (Sky Sports, via Reuters)
“It was their only shot on target and this one was deflected and Arsenal took the win.”Oliver Glasner (Sky Sports)
“If you look at the quality of our starting XI and bench it's absurd.”Noni Madueke (BBC Match of the Day, via premierleague.com)
Forest kept Arsenal out for 80 minutes, and a substitute won it again.
What's happening. Arsenal won 1–0 at the City Ground for a sixth league win in seven. They had three-quarters of the ball, and their only shot on target was the winner. Madueke, on at half-time, cut inside ten minutes from the end and Cunha's leg took it past Sels. Forest had more shots, 14 to nine.
How it works. Forest defended with five across the back and two more in front of the wing-backs, so Arsenal's wingers often met two players. Crossing against a back five rarely pays: the centre-backs are already in the box. What beats it is a winger who goes past the first man and shoots before the second arrives. Eze rarely did that. Madueke did it several times, first on the outside, then inside for the goal.
What the shots say. FotMob has Arsenal only just ahead on xG, and many of Forest's attempts were blocked or from range. One reading: Arsenal controlled the game, gave little away and kept a third clean sheet in four away league games. The other: for a team with this much of the ball, one shot on target is thin, and a deflection decided it. Both are true; the second is the one to fix.