Mourinho's return, animated. Big matches get a full animated analysis; every match gets its score, xG and a graded prediction.
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Madrid come back from the international break with eight wins in a row and level on points at the top. Celta have one of LaLiga's tightest defences and one of its quietest attacks, and they won 2–0 at the Bernabéu last season.
Real Madrid win 75% · draw 16% · RC Celta win 9%. Expected goals 2.43–0.74.
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Real Madrid have created 40.44 xG and scored 44 in 16 games. Opponents: 16.85 xG, 17 goals. In the league, 30 points from 12 games against 26.7 expected.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 11 | +34 | 30 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 | Atlético de Madrid | 11 | +14 | 28 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 11 | +3 | 23 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla FC | 12 | -2 | 18 |
Bars: expected goals (xG) created. Rings: actual goals. ■ Real Madrid ■ Opponent
Solid: actual goals. Dashed: xG. Real Madrid in the team colour, opponents in the contrast colour.
Expected points: the points the chances deserved, from each LaLiga match's xG.
| Date | Comp | Opponent | Score | xG | W / D / L from the chances | Verdict | Pre-match model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug | LL | RCD Espanyol | 2–1 | 2.71–1.05 | 72% / 15% / 12% | Deserved | – |
| 26 Aug | LL | Real Sociedad | 4–1 | 3.18–0.65 | 86% / 10% / 5% | Deserved | – |
| 30 Aug | LL | Málaga CF | 4–0 | 2.62–0.71 | 78% / 14% / 8% | Deserved | – |
| 4 Sep | LL | Real Betis | 0–1 | 3.46–0.93 | 84% / 10% / 6% | Unlucky | – |
| 8 Sep | UCL | FC Internazionale Milano | 2–1 | 2.76–1.83 | 58% / 18% / 25% | Deserved | – |
| 12 Sep | LL | Rayo Vallecano | 4–1 | 2.62–1.21 | 68% / 17% / 16% | Deserved | – |
| 15 Sep | LL | Elche CF | 3–2 | 3.61–0.78 | 88% / 8% / 4% | Deserved | – |
| 20 Sep | LL | Atlético de Madrid | 1–2 | 0.30–2.35 | 3% / 13% / 84% | Deserved loss | – |
| 10 Oct | LL | Villarreal CF | 1–0 | 1.43–0.59 | 58% / 27% / 15% | Deserved | 63% / 18% / 19% Called it |
| 14 Oct | UCL | AS Roma | 4–3 | 1.43–1.41 | 38% / 25% / 37% | Fortunate | 27% / 24% / 50% Missed |
| 18 Oct | LL | Sevilla FC | 4–1 | 2.28–0.75 | 72% / 17% / 11% | Deserved | 79% / 13% / 8% Called it |
| 21 Oct | UCL | RB Leipzig | 4–1 | 3.09–1.49 | 69% / 15% / 16% | Deserved | 70% / 15% / 15% Called it |
| 25 Oct | LL | FC Barcelona | 2–1 | 1.94–1.19 | 55% / 22% / 23% | Deserved | 14% / 14% / 72% Missed |
| 1 Nov | LL | Racing de Santander | 3–0 | 3.36–0.97 | 82% / 11% / 7% | Deserved | 69% / 16% / 15% Called it |
| 4 Nov | UCL | AEK Athens | 3–2 | 3.39–0.78 | 86% / 9% / 5% | Deserved | 19% / 22% / 60% Missed |
| 7 Nov | LL | Valencia CF | 3–0 | 2.26–0.16 | 86% / 12% / 2% | Deserved | – |
“W / D / L from the chances” replays each match with the same xG using a Poisson model. xG from FotMob (Opta data) for every match. Madrid's 2025/26 per-game priors: xG/xGA from StatMuse (Opta), goals from the final LaLiga table. League averages (1.57 home, 1.12 away) from SoccerStats' 2025/26 LaLiga figures. Racing xG updated 8 Nov to FotMob's final figure (3.36–0.97; it showed 3.45–1.15 earlier). Table: LaLiga, 8 Nov 2026.
What's happening. Madrid won 3–2 in Athens and 3–0 at Valencia, their seventh and eighth wins in a row. They are level with Barcelona on 30 points, though Barcelona have a game in hand at Atlético. Valverde is back from his hamstring injury: he came off the bench to win it in Athens and scored again at Mestalla.
How it works. The base is the same mid block, but Madrid have shown three ways to attack. At Camp Nou they broke into space. In Athens, against a deep 4-4-2, the goals came from full-backs crossing low. At Valencia, against a back five, Güler took the ball between the lines and Bellingham ran to the byline. The cost shows on the break: AEK scored twice from nine shots when both full-backs had gone forward.
What the shots say. FotMob had Madrid well ahead on xG in both games, and Valencia made the fewest chances of any opponent this season. One reading: the question after Racing was a side that sits deep, and Valencia sat deep and still lost the chances battle badly. The other: Valencia are in the bottom three, and AEK showed that Madrid still concede clean chances on the break.
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Valencia sat in a back five, and Madrid played around it and behind it. Valverde scored from a free-kick rebound, Güler scored one and made one, and Valencia managed four shots.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLReal Madrid · 4 NovAEK Athens 2–3 Real MadridAEK took the lead twice on the break, and Madrid came back twice from full-back crosses. Valverde, back from injury and on as a substitute, won it with a shot from distance in added time.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 1 NovRacing de Santander 0–3 Real MadridRacing came out to press at home and left the space behind. Madrid were 3–0 up after 36 minutes, with Güler running the right side and Bellingham arriving from midfield.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 25 OctFC Barcelona 1–2 Real MadridNo Courtois, no Vinícius and 38% of the ball: Madrid let Barcelona have it, broke behind their midfield, and Mbappé scored both goals in a 2–1 win.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLReal Madrid · 21 OctReal Madrid 4–1 RB LeipzigLeipzig matched Madrid for 44 minutes. Then Bernardo Silva, Güler, Mbappé and the substitute Diomande made it 4–1.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 18 OctReal Madrid 4–1 Sevilla FCGüler in the double pivot, Diomande on the left, Mbappé twice: Madrid beat Sevilla 4–1 without Vinícius.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLReal Madrid · 14 OctAS Roma 3–4 Real MadridRoma led 3–1 at 82 minutes. Then Güler took three corners and Madrid won 4–3.
7 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 10 OctReal Madrid 1–0 Villarreal CFDiomande's first goal and a 4-4-2 block beat Villarreal, even after Vinícius's red card.
1 goal animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 20 SepAtlético de Madrid 2–1 Real MadridHuijsen's red card decided the derby, but Madrid had created almost nothing before it.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 15 SepElche CF 2–3 Real MadridReal Madrid lead Elche CF 2–0, let it slip to 2–2, and need Espí in stoppage time again.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 12 SepReal Madrid 4–1 Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid score three times in 21 minutes down the left, then lose control of the second half.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLReal Madrid · 8 SepReal Madrid 2–1 FC Internazionale MilanoTwo goals from Real Madrid's press, 21 shots against, and Courtois to hold it together.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 4 SepReal Betis 1–0 Real Madrid3.46 xG, a post, a crossbar, two blocks on the line and a saved penalty: Real Madrid's first defeat under Mourinho came from one Real Betis corner.
1 goal animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 30 AugReal Madrid 4–0 Málaga CFFive changes, three goals in 11 minutes: Real Madrid had beaten promoted Málaga CF by the half-hour, led by a Bellingham freed from defensive duty.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 26 AugReal Madrid 4–1 Real SociedadLevel and whistled at half-time, Real Madrid scored three times in the second half once the tempo went up. Mbappé got a hat-trick and Bellingham two assists.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 22 AugRCD Espanyol 1–2 Real MadridReal Madrid had the ball, the shots and the set piece. The winner still took until the 90th minute and a debutant off the bench.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column →Every diagram plays on a loop like a short GIF: the dots are players moving, the white ball travels with the play, and lines trace where the ball and the runners went. Goal diagrams show the scoring team attacking up the page. Use Pause to freeze any moment. Diagrams are reconstructions from match reports and analysis, not tracking data, so positions are approximate.
Facts (line-ups, minutes, stats, quotes) are cross-checked across at least two outlets where possible. xG sources are named in the notes above and in each match. Tactical claims are credited to the outlet that made them. YouTube analyses are linked, not transcribed. Everything under Column is our own analysis.