Mourinho's return, animated. Big matches get a full animated analysis; every match gets its score, xG and a graded prediction.
Tap a highlighted match to open its analysis. The dashed card at the end is the next match's preview.
Villarreal are ninth, but their chance numbers are much better than that, and Madrid are short of centre-backs.
Real Madrid win 63% · draw 18% · Villarreal win 19%. Expected goals 2.61 – 1.41.
Real Madrid have created 21.26 xG and scored 20 in 8 games. Opponents: 9.51 xG, 9 goals. In the league, 15 points from 7 games against 15.2 expected.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | +5 | 11 |
Bars: expected goals (xG) created. Rings: actual goals. ■ Real Madrid ■ Opponent
Solid: actual goals. Dashed: xG. Real Madrid in the team colour, opponents in the contrast colour.
Expected points: the points the chances deserved, from each LaLiga match's xG.
| Date | Comp | Opponent | Score | xG | W / D / L from the chances | Verdict | Pre-match model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug | LL | Espanyol | 2–1 | 2.71–1.05 | 72% / 15% / 12% | Deserved | – |
| 26 Aug | LL | Real Sociedad | 4–1 | 3.18–0.65 | 86% / 10% / 5% | Deserved | – |
| 30 Aug | LL | Málaga | 4–0 | 2.62–0.71 | 78% / 14% / 8% | Deserved | – |
| 4 Sep | LL | Real Betis | 0–1 | 3.46–0.93 | 84% / 10% / 6% | Unlucky | – |
| 8 Sep | UCL | Inter | 2–1 | 2.76–1.83 | 58% / 18% / 25% | Deserved | – |
| 12 Sep | LL | Rayo Vallecano | 4–1 | 2.62–1.21 | 68% / 17% / 16% | Deserved | – |
| 15 Sep | LL | Elche | 3–2 | 3.61–0.78 | 88% / 8% / 4% | Deserved | – |
| 20 Sep | LL | Atlético Madrid | 1–2 | 0.30–2.35 | 3% / 13% / 84% | Deserved loss | – |
“W / D / L from the chances” replays each match with the same xG using a Poisson model. xG from FotMob (Opta data) for every match. Madrid's 2025/26 per-game priors: xG/xGA from StatMuse (Opta), goals from the final LaLiga table. League averages (1.57 home, 1.12 away) from SoccerStats' 2025/26 LaLiga figures.
The attack is clearly better. In seven LaLiga games Madrid have produced 18.5 xG, about 2.6 a game, up from 1.99 a game across 2025/26. Across all eight competitive matches they have 21.3 xG created and 9.5 conceded, with 20 goals scored and 9 let in. Mbappé scored in five of the eight. Bellingham scored three times in the first five league games. The defence is roughly where it was: about 1.1 xG conceded per league game, against 1.13 last season.
The results are less convincing than the numbers. The two league defeats both came against teams now above Madrid in the table. At Betis, Madrid created 3.46 xG to 0.93 and still lost 1–0, with Mbappé missing a stoppage-time penalty. That one was mostly bad luck. The derby wasn't. Atlético held Madrid to 0.30 xG (Opta Analyst's figure, 0.32, was Madrid's lowest in LaLiga since February 2015) and got their penalty and red card from a planned attack on Madrid's left side. Two of the league wins also needed a 90th-minute goal from 21-year-old Carlos Espí (at Espanyol and at Elche).
So there are two ways to read the table, where Madrid are fourth and six points behind a perfect Barcelona. The first is that Madrid dominate most games on chances and should keep collecting points. The second is that the only strong side to set up a specific plan against them beat them clearly. October will show which one is right: Villarreal, Roma, Sevilla, Leipzig and then the Clásico at Barcelona, all within 16 days.
Every diagram plays on a loop like a short GIF: the dots are players moving, the white ball travels with the play, and lines trace where the ball and the runners went. Goal diagrams show the scoring team attacking up the page. Use Pause to freeze any moment. Diagrams are reconstructions from match reports and analysis, not tracking data, so positions are approximate.
Facts (line-ups, minutes, stats, quotes) are cross-checked across at least two outlets where possible. xG sources are named in the notes above and in each match. Tactical claims are credited to the outlet that made them. YouTube analyses are linked, not transcribed. Everything under Column is our own analysis.