Madrid's points total would win many leagues, but it ran 10 points ahead of the chances. Under Arbeloa the attack made far fewer chances than under Alonso, and Courtois' end of the pitch kept the results afloat.
Trophies: None · League: 2nd · Champions League: quarter-final (Bayern) · Supercopa: lost final to Barcelona
Solid line: real points. Dashed: points the chances were worth.
Right = better chance difference per game. Up = more points than the chances were worth.
Madrid took 86 points from chances worth 76.0. That +10 is the second-largest gap of our seven clubs, behind only Barcelona.
It did not come from shooting (about 7 goals below expected, non-penalty). It came from the other goal: opponents scored about 12 fewer than their chances were worth.
■ npxG · ■ npxGA · Six-match average of non-penalty xG. Gap between the lines = how much better they were.
| Act 1 | Act 2 | Act 3 | Act 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 2.70 | 2.10 | 2.33 | 1.89 |
| Expected | 2.17 | 2.26 | 1.90 | 1.62 |
| Chance diff. | +1.09 | +1.06 | +0.49 | +0.34 |
| Alonso (19) | Arbeloa (19) | |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 2.37 | 2.16 |
| Expected | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| npxG / npxGA | 2.22 / 1.14 | 1.52 / 1.07 |
Alonso (19 league games): 2.37 points a game from chances worth 2.20, with 2.22 non-penalty xG made per game. A strong, front-foot team.
Arbeloa (19 games, from mid-January): 2.16 points a game from chances worth only 1.80. The defence held (1.07 npxG allowed vs 1.14), but the attack fell from 2.22 to 1.52 chances a game, a drop of almost a third.
By act, the chance gap shrank all season: +1.09, +1.06, +0.49, +0.34. Results fell more slowly than the football, which is why the title race lasted until Barcelona clinched it in the Clásico on 10 May.
Madrid were one of the hardest teams in Spain to press (95th percentile) and were near the top for both attack (95th) and defence (100th by chances allowed).
They pressed far less than Barcelona (PPDA 10.8, around the middle of the league), so most of their defending happened closer to their own goal.
| When ahead | pushed for more | +5 pp vs avg |
| Right after scoring | pushed for more | +9 pp vs avg |
| Right after conceding | about league average | −2 pp vs avg |
Share of the match’s chances they created in that spell, compared with the rest of the same matches, then compared with the league average.
| Points won from losing positions | 8 |
| Points dropped from winning positions | 7 |
| Goals after 75' (for–against) | 19–9 |
| Home / away points per game | 2.58 / 1.95 |
| Against the top six | 6-1-3 · 1.90 |
Madrid were good after scoring: in the 15 minutes that followed, they took a bigger share of the chances than the average team did (+9 points vs the league).
They were also late finishers: 26% of their open-play xG came after the 75th minute and only 8% in the first 15. They scored 19 goals after 75' and conceded 9.
Finishing: -6.8 goals vs xG (non-penalty) · Goalkeeping/defending: +12.3 goals saved vs xG
Madrid shot from further out than almost anyone (median 17.3 m, 90th percentile), and 15% of their non-penalty xG came from outside the box, the biggest share among our seven clubs.
Set pieces mattered more than at Barcelona (26% of chances). Dribbles and through balls were well above average, crosses below.
| Player | Goals | xG | Assists | xA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | 25 | 25.8 | 5 | 7.2 |
| Vinícius Júnior | 16 | 14.4 | 5 | 7.2 |
| Federico Valverde | 5 | 2.2 | 8 | 5.0 |
| Arda Güler | 4 | 4.8 | 9 | 8.8 |
| Jude Bellingham | 6 | 7.7 | 4 | 3.0 |
| Gonzalo García | 6 | 5.3 | 1 | 1.6 |
| Brahim Díaz | 1 | 1.7 | 6 | 3.6 |
| Álvaro Carreras | 2 | 0.8 | 3 | 1.8 |
Chief creators (xA): Arda Güler 8.8 · Kylian Mbappé 7.2 · Vinícius Júnior 7.2
Build-up engines (xGBuildup): Federico Valverde 15.3 · Álvaro Carreras 15.1 · Aurélien Tchouaméni 11.4
Kylian Mbappé scored 25 league goals from 25.8 xG, eight of them penalties. Vinícius Júnior added 16, four from the spot.
Arda Güler was the chief creator (9 assists, 8.8 xA), ahead of both star forwards. Federico Valverde led the squad in build-up involvement and added 8 assists.
Jude Bellingham scored 6 from 7.7 xG in under 2,000 minutes, a quieter season than his first two.
Eighty-six points usually means a title. For Madrid it meant second place and a season without a trophy, and even 86 flattered them. The attack lost a third of its chances after the coaching change in January, and a strong goalkeeper and defence covered the gap.
José Mourinho takes over a team whose structure without the ball is sound but whose attack depends heavily on two forwards and long-range shots. Expect results to fall towards the chances unless the chance creation of the Alonso months returns.
The quiet positive: Güler emerged as a real creator, which gives the next coach a passer between the lines that the attack badly needs.
League matches only. Expected points come from the shots each side created; luck and finishing quality both live in the gap.