Big matches, broken down move by move. Big matches get a full animated analysis; every match gets its score, xG and a graded prediction.
Tap a highlighted match to open its analysis. The dashed card at the end is the next match's preview.
Bottom-of-the-table Spurs keep the ball but can't score. United create plenty but can't finish. Something has to give.
Man United win 69% · draw 18% · Tottenham win 14%. Expected goals 2.36 – 0.96.
Man United have created 14.63 xG and scored 14 in 7 games. Opponents: 9.78 xG, 11 goals. In the league, 5 points from 5 games against 8.1 expected.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds | 5 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Man United | 5 | 0 | 5 |
Bars: expected goals (xG) created. Rings: actual goals. ■ Man United ■ Opponent
Solid: actual goals. Dashed: xG. Man United in the team colour, opponents in the contrast colour.
Expected points: the points the chances deserved, from each Premier League match's xG.
| Date | Comp | Opponent | Score | xG | W / D / L from the chances | Verdict | Pre-match model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug | PL | Hull City | 0–2 | 1.83–1.01 | 57% / 23% / 21% | Unlucky | – |
| 30 Aug | PL | Ipswich | 5–2 | 4.77–2.06 | 80% / 9% / 10% | Deserved | – |
| 6 Sep | PL | Everton | 2–2 | 0.69–1.01 | 24% / 33% / 42% | Fair | – |
| 10 Sep | UCL | Sabah | 4–0 | 3.54–0.84 | 86% / 9% / 5% | Deserved | – |
| 13 Sep | PL | Man City | 0–1 | 1.00–1.10 | 32% / 30% / 38% | Deserved loss | – |
| 16 Sep | EFL | Brighton | 2–3 | 1.20–2.14 | 21% / 20% / 59% | Deserved loss | – |
| 20 Sep | PL | Fulham | 1–1 | 1.60–1.62 | 38% / 23% / 39% | Fair | – |
“W / D / L from the chances” replays each match with the same xG using a Poisson model. xG: FotMob (Opta) for every match; the Premier League figures match Sky Sports. Priors: 2025/26 xG/xGA from Opta via Squawka (67 / 48 in 38 games); goals from the final table (69–50).
Five points from five league games is United's joint-worst start since 2014/15, and they sit 12th, ten points behind City. Opta's expected-points table puts them fourth on 8.4. They lead the league in shots (113) and touches in the opposition box, have hit the woodwork six times, and have scored 8 from 9.89 xG. On that reading, the table is harsh on them and the finishing will turn.
Take out the 5–2 against Ipswich (4.77 xG), though, and the other four league games produced 5.12 xG, or 1.28 a game. Last season United averaged about 1.76. At Everton they made 0.69; against City, with an extra man for 67 minutes, 1.00. At Fulham, 29 shots added up to just 1.60 xG, about 0.06 per shot. United aren't just missing chances. Most of their shots are poor ones.
The defence is the bigger worry. Across all seven games United have conceded 11 goals from 9.78 xG against (1.40 a game, up from 1.26 in the league last season). They have also kept giving up late goals: Ipswich in the 91st minute, Everton in the 96th, and three unanswered after leading Brighton 2–0 in the Carabao Cup. Gary Neville's line after Fulham, that he had "never seen a Man Utd team walk out of possession as much as that", matches the numbers.
Every diagram plays on a loop like a short GIF: the dots are players moving, the white ball travels with the play, and lines trace where the ball and the runners went. Goal diagrams show the scoring team attacking up the page. Use Pause to freeze any moment. Diagrams are reconstructions from match reports and analysis, not tracking data, so positions are approximate.
Facts (line-ups, minutes, stats, quotes) are cross-checked across at least two outlets where possible. xG sources are named in the notes above and in each match. Tactical claims are credited to the outlet that made them. YouTube analyses are linked, not transcribed. Everything under Column is our own analysis.