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United go to Anfield 18th, after coming from two down in each of their last two games; Liverpool are fourth after a 3–1 win at Crystal Palace. United won both meetings last season.
Manchester United win 27% · draw 21% · Liverpool win 52%. Expected goals 1.47–2.09.
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Manchester United have created 26.98 xG and scored 24 in 15 games. Opponents: 26.03 xG, 30 goals. In the league, 8 points from 10 games against 13.0 expected.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 10 | +19 | 22 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 | Manchester United | 10 | -5 | 8 |
Bars: expected goals (xG) created. Rings: actual goals. ■ Manchester United ■ Opponent
Solid: actual goals. Dashed: xG. Manchester United in the team colour, opponents in the contrast colour.
Expected points: the points the chances deserved, from each Premier League match's xG.
| Date | Comp | Opponent | Score | xG | W / D / L from the chances | Verdict | Pre-match model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug | PL | Hull City | 0–2 | 1.83–1.01 | 57% / 23% / 21% | Unlucky | – |
| 30 Aug | PL | Ipswich Town | 5–2 | 4.77–2.06 | 80% / 9% / 10% | Deserved | – |
| 6 Sep | PL | Everton | 2–2 | 0.69–1.01 | 24% / 33% / 42% | Fair | – |
| 10 Sep | UCL | Sabah FK | 4–0 | 3.54–0.84 | 86% / 9% / 5% | Deserved | – |
| 13 Sep | PL | Manchester City | 0–1 | 1.00–1.10 | 32% / 30% / 38% | Deserved loss | – |
| 16 Sep | EFL | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2–3 | 1.20–2.14 | 21% / 20% / 59% | Deserved loss | – |
| 20 Sep | PL | Fulham | 1–1 | 1.60–1.62 | 38% / 23% / 39% | Fair | – |
| 10 Oct | PL | Tottenham Hotspur | 1–1 | 0.80–1.62 | 18% / 25% / 57% | Fair | 69% / 18% / 14% Missed |
| 13 Oct | UCL | Atlético de Madrid | 0–2 | 0.98–1.47 | 25% / 26% / 48% | Deserved loss | 26% / 22% / 53% Called it |
| 18 Oct | PL | Leeds United | 1–1 | 0.92–1.41 | 25% / 27% / 48% | Fair | 41% / 24% / 36% Missed |
| 21 Oct | UCL | Como 1907 | 1–4 | 0.99–2.11 | 17% / 20% / 63% | Deserved loss | 23% / 22% / 55% Called it |
| 25 Oct | PL | AFC Bournemouth | 0–3 | 1.17–2.15 | 20% / 20% / 60% | Deserved loss | 48% / 22% / 30% Missed |
| 31 Oct | PL | Chelsea | 0–2 | 1.24–3.01 | 13% / 14% / 73% | Deserved loss | 33% / 22% / 45% Called it |
| 3 Nov | UCL | AS Roma | 3–2 | 2.70–1.60 | 61% / 18% / 21% | Deserved | 27% / 21% / 52% Missed |
| 8 Nov | PL | Aston Villa | 4–4 | 3.55–2.88 | 52% / 16% / 32% | Points dropped | 52% / 22% / 26% Missed |
“W / D / L from the chances” replays each match with the same xG using a Poisson model. xG: FotMob (Opta) for every match, using FotMob's final figure (for Como it is 0.99–2.11; Opta Analyst's full-time number was 1.05–2.04; for Chelsea it is 1.24–3.01 including Palmer's penalty, Opta Analyst's half-time splits add up to 1.17–2.61; for Roma it is 2.70–1.60, ESPN has 2.72–1.53; for Aston Villa it is 3.55–2.88, the same as Sky Sports); table after Matchday 10: Sky Sports table after Saturday's games plus Sunday's five results (Brighton 2–0 Brentford, Crystal Palace 1–3 Liverpool, Sunderland 1–0 Chelsea, Ipswich 1–2 Bournemouth, Man United 4–4 Aston Villa; premierleague.com, Brentford FC, FotMob), United 18th. Priors: 2025/26 xG/xGA from Opta via Squawka (67 / 48 in 38 games); goals from the final table (69–50).
What's happening. Two comebacks in five days: a win over Roma from two down, then a draw with Aston Villa after trailing by two goals twice. It still leaves United 18th with one league win all season, the club's lowest position after ten games since 1986/87 (Opta Analyst). Next, after the international break, is Liverpool at Anfield.
How it works. Since half-time against Roma, United have pressed high and pushed both full-backs on. That makes chances: Villa spent most of Sunday in their own half. The cost is the space behind and how few defenders are left when the ball is lost or a dead ball is given away. Villa scored from a first-minute move, a parry, a penalty given away on the left and a free kick.
What the shots say. United out-created Villa (FotMob), the second game running after six in which the opponent made more. Over the league season they have scored fewer goals than their chances deserve and conceded more. One reading: the attack is working, and the goals against are mistakes that can be coached out. The other: a side that has conceded more than anyone in Europe's top five leagues (Opta Analyst) has a defending problem, not a luck problem.
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Villa led 2–0 after four minutes and 4–2 after 53. United, with 26 shots to Villa's 12, drew level with two goals in stoppage time and are still 18th.
8 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLManchester United · 3 NovManchester United 3–2 AS RomaTwo down at half-time against Roma's man-for-man press, United pressed back: a retaken Fernandes penalty and two Cunha goals in three minutes ended nine games without a win.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester United · 31 OctChelsea 2–0 Manchester UnitedUnited were the better side for 45 minutes. Then Lavia took the ball off Mbeumo, Rogers ran through, Martínez was sent off and Palmer scored the penalty: nine games without a win.
2 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester United · 25 OctManchester United 0–3 AFC BournemouthFernandes on the bench, 63% of the ball, three errors punished: Bournemouth won 3–0 and United are eight games without a win.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLManchester United · 21 OctComo 1907 4–1 Manchester UnitedUnited stood off, Nico Paz lived in the space in front of their back four, and Como won 4–1: seven games without a win.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester United · 18 OctLeeds United 1–1 Manchester UnitedA new back three, a Mbeumo goal and a better first half, then Leeds took over: six games without a win.
2 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLManchester United · 13 OctAtlético de Madrid 2–0 Manchester UnitedBehind after 47 seconds, four big chances missed, down to ten at 74 minutes: United's night in Madrid.
2 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester United · 10 OctManchester United 1–1 Tottenham HotspurOutplayed for an hour, ahead at 73 minutes, caught by ten men in stoppage time.
2 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester United · 20 SepFulham 1–1 Manchester United29 shots, a narrow loss on xG, and a deflection to rescue a point.
2 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → EFLManchester United · 16 SepManchester United 2–3 Brighton & Hove AlbionTwo goals up after nine minutes, behind by the 69th: Manchester United lose at home from 2–0 up for the first time in 50 years.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester United · 13 SepManchester United 0–1 Manchester CityManchester United had an extra man for 67 minutes and made 1.00 xG. Manchester City won with a goal the referees later admitted should have been checked.
1 goal animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLManchester United · 10 SepManchester United 4–0 Sabah FKManchester United return to the Champions League with a 4–0: patient for 27 minutes, then three goals before half-time.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester United · 6 SepEverton 2–2 Manchester UnitedManchester United lead twice and are caught twice, by two long-range shots worth 0.07 xG between them.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester United · 30 AugManchester United 5–2 Ipswich TownBehind after a Fatawu run, Manchester United answer with a Fernandes hat-trick, 33 shots and 4.77 xG.
7 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester United · 22 AugHull City 2–0 Manchester UnitedHull City's hidden back five and two Slater set pieces beat a flat Manchester United on opening day.
2 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column →Every diagram plays on a loop like a short GIF: the dots are players moving, the white ball travels with the play, and lines trace where the ball and the runners went. Goal diagrams show the scoring team attacking up the page. Use Pause to freeze any moment. Diagrams are reconstructions from match reports and analysis, not tracking data, so positions are approximate.
Facts (line-ups, minutes, stats, quotes) are cross-checked across at least two outlets where possible. xG sources are named in the notes above and in each match. Tactical claims are credited to the outlet that made them. YouTube analyses are linked, not transcribed. Everything under Column is our own analysis.