United finished third and returned to the Champions League. The jump after the coaching change was real in points but not in chances: Carrick's side created and allowed about the same as Amorim's.
Trophies: None · League: 3rd, back in the Champions League
Solid line: real points. Dashed: points the chances were worth.
Right = better chance difference per game. Up = more points than the chances were worth.
United took 71 points from chances worth 64.4. Third on chances too, so the finish was fair, but the margin (+6.6) was the largest among the English clubs we follow.
They finished below their chances (about 8 goals fewer than expected, non-penalty), and the goalkeeping was only slightly above average (+3.8). The extra points came mostly from when goals arrived: 15 points were won from losing positions.
■ npxG · ■ npxGA · Six-match average of non-penalty xG. Gap between the lines = how much better they were.
| Act 1 | Act 2 | Act 3 | Act 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 1.70 | 1.40 | 2.22 | 2.22 |
| Expected | 1.61 | 1.69 | 1.90 | 1.59 |
| Chance diff. | +0.16 | +0.66 | +0.96 | +0.39 |
| Amorim (21) | Carrick (17) | |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 1.52 | 2.29 |
| Expected | 1.70 | 1.69 |
| npxG / npxGA | 1.82 / 1.33 | 1.73 / 1.14 |
Amorim (21 league games, including the interim game on 7 January): 1.52 points a game from chances worth 1.70. United were slightly unlucky.
Carrick (17 games): 2.29 points a game from chances worth 1.69, almost exactly the same chance level. The attack made a little less (1.73 vs 1.82 npxG a game), and the defence allowed a little less (1.14 vs 1.33).
So the bounce was mostly results catching up and then overshooting. The defensive improvement was real but modest. Act 4 (Mar–May) brought 2.22 points a game from chances worth only 1.59.
A good attack (89th percentile) and a good defence by chances allowed (89th), with a middle-of-the-league press (PPDA 10.8).
The weakness was how often opponents got near the box: 7.0 times a game, only middle of the league (47th). And 28% of the chances United allowed came from set pieces, one of the highest shares in England.
| When ahead | about league average | −3 pp vs avg |
| Right after scoring | about league average | +2 pp vs avg |
| Right after conceding | about league average | −1 pp vs avg |
Share of the match’s chances they created in that spell, compared with the rest of the same matches, then compared with the league average.
| Points won from losing positions | 15 |
| Points dropped from winning positions | 16 |
| Goals after 75' (for–against) | 16–15 |
| Home / away points per game | 2.21 / 1.53 |
| Against the top six | 5-2-3 · 1.70 |
This was a chaotic team. United won 15 points from losing positions and dropped 16 from winning ones. They scored 16 goals after the 75th minute and conceded 15.
Their reactions to goals were close to the league average. The drama came from the volume of swings, not from one clear habit.
Finishing: -7.7 goals vs xG (non-penalty) · Goalkeeping/defending: +3.8 goals saved vs xG
Chance creation leaned on the middle of the box (51% of non-penalty xG) with plenty of dribble-created chances (90th percentile). Set pieces produced a small share of their own chances (10th percentile for share).
Shots came from slightly further out than at the top teams (median 16.3 m), which keeps shot quality average (0.118 xG a shot).
| Player | Goals | xG | Assists | xA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes | 9 | 11.9 | 21 | 17.8 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 11 | 13.3 | 3 | 5.1 |
| Benjamin Šeško | 11 | 12.5 | 1 | 0.6 |
| Matheus Cunha | 10 | 7.1 | 2 | 3.7 |
| Casemiro | 9 | 6.6 | 2 | 3.2 |
| Patrick Dorgu | 4 | 3.0 | 4 | 3.1 |
| Amad Diallo | 2 | 5.7 | 3 | 5.7 |
| Diogo Dalot | 1 | 2.2 | 3 | 3.5 |
Chief creators (xA): Bruno Fernandes 17.8 · Amad Diallo 5.7 · Bryan Mbeumo 5.1
Build-up engines (xGBuildup): Casemiro 11.9 · Bruno Fernandes 11.7 · Luke Shaw 10.6
Bruno Fernandes was the season: 21 assists from 17.8 xA and 137 key passes, far more than anyone else at the club. He also scored 9, four of them penalties.
The three new forwards all reached double figures. Bryan Mbeumo scored 11 from 13.3 xG and Benjamin Šeško 11 from 12.5. Matheus Cunha scored 10 from only 7.1, the clinical one.
Casemiro scored 9 from 6.6 xG, unusually many for a holding midfielder, and was also the squad's top build-up contributor.
The usual story says a new coach arrived and the team was transformed. The numbers tell a quieter story. United's chances barely moved, the defence tightened a little, and results swung from below the chances to well above them.
That matters for 2026/27. A team that earns 2.29 points a game from 1.69 points of chances is unlikely to keep doing it. The base it can count on is roughly a top-four chance level. The upgrade has to come from the area near its own box, where opponents still arrived far too often.
The good news is the attack is now spread across four or five scorers, with Fernandes feeding all of them.
League matches only. Expected points come from the shots each side created; luck and finishing quality both live in the gap.