Iraola's first season at Anfield, animated. Big matches get a full animated analysis; every match gets its score, xG and a graded prediction.
Tap a highlighted match to open its analysis. The dashed card at the end is the next match's preview.
Liverpool come back from the international break fourth, after a 3–1 win at Palace that needed six Alisson saves. Manchester United arrive 18th and eight league games without a win, but they have just come from two goals down twice to draw 4–4 with Aston Villa.
Liverpool win 54% · draw 20% · Manchester United win 26%. Expected goals 2.29–1.55.
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Liverpool have created 28.69 xG and scored 32 in 16 games. Opponents: 23.55 xG, 22 goals. In the league, 18 points from 10 games against 15.4 expected.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 10 | +19 | 22 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 |
Bars: expected goals (xG) created. Rings: actual goals. ■ Liverpool ■ Opponent
Solid: actual goals. Dashed: xG. Liverpool in the team colour, opponents in the contrast colour.
Expected points: the points the chances deserved, from each Premier League match's xG.
| Date | Comp | Opponent | Score | xG | W / D / L from the chances | Verdict | Pre-match model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug | PL | Newcastle United | 2–2 | 2.98–1.58 | 66% / 16% / 18% | Points dropped | – |
| 29 Aug | PL | Nottingham Forest | 2–2 | 1.75–2.30 | 30% / 20% / 50% | Fair | – |
| 4 Sep | PL | Ipswich Town | 2–0 | 0.69–0.75 | 29% / 38% / 33% | Fortunate | – |
| 9 Sep | UCL | Atlético de Madrid | 2–1 | 1.62–0.91 | 54% / 25% / 21% | Deserved | – |
| 12 Sep | PL | Fulham | 0–0 | 1.28–0.70 | 50% / 29% / 20% | Points dropped | – |
| 15 Sep | EFL | Tottenham Hotspur | 3–1 | 1.85–2.24 | 33% / 20% / 47% | Fortunate | – |
| 20 Sep | PL | AFC Bournemouth | 1–0 | 1.65–0.79 | 58% / 24% / 18% | Deserved | – |
| 11 Oct | PL | Manchester City | 0–3 | 0.94–1.28 | 27% / 28% / 44% | Deserved loss | 33% / 24% / 44% Called it |
| 14 Oct | UCL | LASK | 6–3 | 3.25–2.04 | 62% / 16% / 22% | Deserved | 22% / 21% / 58% Missed |
| 17 Oct | PL | Brentford | 2–1 | 1.64–0.88 | 55% / 25% / 20% | Deserved | 31% / 23% / 47% Missed |
| 20 Oct | UCL | Villarreal CF | 4–3 | 2.37–1.61 | 55% / 19% / 26% | Deserved | 41% / 23% / 36% Called it |
| 25 Oct | PL | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2–0 | 1.20–1.32 | 34% / 27% / 39% | Fortunate | 42% / 22% / 36% Called it |
| 28 Oct | EFL | Chelsea | 1–1 | 1.95–1.79 | 42% / 21% / 36% | Fair | 56% / 21% / 23% Missed |
| 1 Nov | PL | Arsenal | 0–1 | 1.05–0.98 | 37% / 31% / 33% | Deserved loss | 25% / 26% / 49% Called it |
| 4 Nov | UCL | Fenerbahçe | 2–3 | 1.82–1.78 | 40% / 22% / 38% | Deserved loss | 16% / 18% / 67% Called it |
| 8 Nov | PL | Crystal Palace | 3–1 | 2.65–2.60 | 42% / 18% / 40% | Fortunate | 56% / 22% / 23% Called it |
“W / D / L from the chances” replays each match with the same xG using a Poisson model. xG: FotMob (Opta) for every match. Chelsea (League Cup): 1–1, Liverpool won 6–5 on penalties; both xG figures include a penalty (FotMob revised them to 1.95–1.79 after publication). Arsenal: FotMob revised its xG to 1.05–0.98 after publication (was 1.15–0.96). Crystal Palace: 2.65–2.60 from FotMob's match page, Palace's figure including Nketiah's stoppage-time penalty (a FotMob news report gave 2.38 for Palace). Table: NBC Sports, 8 Nov, after all Matchday 10 games. Priors: 2025/26 xG/xGA from StatMuse (59.25 / 47.02 in 38 games); goals from the final table (63–53).
What's happening. A 3–1 win at bottom-of-the-table Palace ended two defeats in a row. Liverpool are fourth, nine points behind Arsenal, and have taken 13 points away from home, the most in the league (Sky Sports). But Palace had more of the ball and 19 shots, and Alisson made six saves (Sky Sports).
How it works. Liverpool usually win by keeping the ball and limiting what the opponent gets. At Selhurst Park they had less of it and scored from a front-post free kick and two fast breaks into the space behind Palace's wing-backs. A second way to win is useful. The cost is that a side without the ball gives away shots, and then the goalkeeper decides the result.
What the shots say. Over the league season Liverpool have scored a little less than their chances are worth and conceded clearly less than theirs (FotMob). One reading: the finishing will catch up, and the defence is sound. The other: the last three league games, Arsenal included, were close to level on xG, and a margin that went against them against Arsenal went for them on Sunday.
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Palace had more of the ball and 19 shots, but Liverpool scored first from a front-post free kick and then twice on the break. Alisson made six saves, Wirtz scored his first league goal of the season, and two defeats in a row are over.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLLiverpool · 4 NovFenerbahçe 3–2 LiverpoolLiverpool led twice in Istanbul and lost 3–2. All three Fenerbahçe goals came from set pieces: a deflected free kick, a short corner and a throw-in, the last two at 73' and 79', after Isak had put Liverpool 2–1 up.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLLiverpool · 1 NovLiverpool 0–1 ArsenalOne loose pass from a goal kick and Havertz scored at 16'. Liverpool then had 17 shots and 52 touches in Arsenal's box, and not one shot on target.
1 goal animated · tactic breakdown · column → EFLLiverpool · 28 OctLiverpool 1–1 ChelseaBoth goals were penalties three minutes apart, chances were few, and a Liverpool side with four academy starters won the shootout 6–5.
2 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLLiverpool · 25 OctLiverpool 2–0 Brighton & Hove AlbionTwo goals in four minutes, then Liverpool defended their box: Brighton had 64% of the ball, 17 shots and one on target.
2 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLLiverpool · 20 OctLiverpool 4–3 Villarreal CFTwo down after 29 minutes, Liverpool won 4–3: Gravenberch moved to right-back, Wirtz came on, and Ngumoha ran at Villarreal all night.
7 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLLiverpool · 17 OctBrentford 1–2 LiverpoolBehind at half-time, Liverpool won it against ten men: Wirtz made the chances, Muñoz and Isak scored.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLLiverpool · 14 OctLASK 3–6 LiverpoolLiverpool's full-backs set up four goals and Barcola scored a hat-trick. Then LASK scored three in 14 minutes.
9 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLLiverpool · 11 OctLiverpool 0–3 Manchester CityLiverpool were the better side for an hour. Then Gravenberch's second yellow, and three City goals in 13 minutes.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLLiverpool · 20 SepAFC Bournemouth 0–1 LiverpoolSecond best for 25 minutes, Iraola beats his old club with a half-time fix and an Isak tap-in.
1 goal animated · tactic breakdown · column → EFLLiverpool · 15 SepLiverpool 3–1 Tottenham HotspurTen changes, less of the ball and less xG: Liverpool's energy, two long-range strikes and Mamardashvili's saves beat Tottenham Hotspur.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLLiverpool · 12 SepLiverpool 0–0 FulhamSixty-odd hours after Atlético de Madrid, Liverpool arrive late to every press and Fulham leave Anfield with their first point.
0 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLLiverpool · 9 SepLiverpool 2–1 Atlético de MadridCaught out by a back five nobody expected, Liverpool adjust, press harder and come from behind again.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLLiverpool · 4 SepIpswich Town 0–2 LiverpoolTwo Gakpo passes, two Isak goals in nine minutes: Iraola's first win comes from the press, not from control.
2 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLLiverpool · 29 AugLiverpool 2–2 Nottingham ForestLiverpool have 69% of the ball, Nottingham Forest have the better chances, and Liverpool twice come from behind to draw.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLLiverpool · 23 AugNewcastle United 2–2 Liverpool27 shots, 2.98 xG and a penalty in the 99th minute: Iraola's first Liverpool side attack well, but two counter-attacks nearly cost them.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column →Every diagram plays on a loop like a short GIF: the dots are players moving, the white ball travels with the play, and lines trace where the ball and the runners went. Goal diagrams show the scoring team attacking up the page. Use Pause to freeze any moment. Diagrams are reconstructions from match reports and analysis, not tracking data, so positions are approximate.
Facts (line-ups, minutes, stats, quotes) are cross-checked across at least two outlets where possible. xG sources are named in the notes above and in each match. Tactical claims are credited to the outlet that made them. YouTube analyses are linked, not transcribed. Everything under Column is our own analysis.