Life after Guardiola: Maresca's first season. Big matches get a full animated analysis; every match gets its score, xG and a graded prediction.
Tap a highlighted match to open its analysis. The dashed card at the end is the next match's preview.
Maresca's perfect record meets Iraola's pressing Liverpool, who are unbeaten but without a home win and losing strikers to injury.
Man City win 39% · draw 23% · Liverpool win 38%. Expected goals 1.67 – 1.66.
Man City have created 15.32 xG and scored 20 in 8 games. Opponents: 9.81 xG, 8 goals. In the league, 15 points from 5 games against 9.1 expected.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds | 5 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | +3 | 9 |
Bars: expected goals (xG) created. Rings: actual goals. ■ Man City ■ Opponent
Solid: actual goals. Dashed: xG. Man City in the team colour, opponents in the contrast colour.
Expected points: the points the chances deserved, from each Premier League match's xG.
| Date | Comp | Opponent | Score | xG | W / D / L from the chances | Verdict | Pre-match model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug | CS | Arsenal | 0–3 | 1.12–2.16 | 19% / 20% / 61% | Deserved loss | – |
| 23 Aug | PL | Bournemouth | 2–1 | 2.25–0.65 | 74% / 17% / 9% | Deserved | – |
| 28 Aug | PL | Crystal Palace | 4–1 | 2.21–0.66 | 73% / 17% / 10% | Deserved | – |
| 5 Sep | PL | Coventry | 1–0 | 2.12–1.37 | 55% / 21% / 24% | Deserved | – |
| 8 Sep | UCL | Porto | 2–0 | 2.32–0.28 | 84% / 13% / 3% | Deserved | – |
| 13 Sep | PL | Man United | 1–0 | 1.10–1.00 | 38% / 30% / 32% | Fortunate | – |
| 17 Sep | EFL | Norwich | 5–0 | 1.38–0.12 | 71% / 26% / 3% | Deserved | – |
| 20 Sep | PL | Sunderland | 5–3 | 2.82–3.57 | 31% / 16% / 54% | Fortunate | – |
“W / D / L from the chances” replays each match with the same xG using a Poisson model. xG from FotMob (Opta) for every match. Sky Sports shows the same figures for the league games; other providers differ for the Sunderland game (City's own site: 2.72–4.15). The Community Shield xG differs from the Arsenal page, which uses a different source. The League Cup tie with Brighton is listed as provisional on City's site.
The results are hard to fault. After the 3–0 Community Shield defeat by Arsenal, Maresca's City have won seven competitive games in a row: five in the league, plus Porto away in the Champions League and Norwich in the League Cup. They are top on 15 points, three clear of Arsenal. Haaland has seven goals in those seven games (five in the league and two in Porto), and Cherki has become the creative hub, with four goals including two at Selhurst Park.
The underlying numbers are less convincing. In the league City have scored 13 from 10.5 xG and conceded 5 from 7.25 xGA. That is about 2.1 xG created per game, close to last season's 2.04. The defensive number has moved the wrong way, though: 1.45 xGA per game against 1.27 in 2025/26. Most of that comes from one afternoon. Sunderland produced 3.57 xG at the Etihad, almost as much as City's other four league opponents combined (3.68). Coventry also got 1.37 from 22% possession.
So the pattern is a side that dominates the ball (72–78% against Palace and Coventry) but gives up big chances whenever an opponent gets through the first wave of its press. City won the derby with ten men on 1.1 xG to 1.0, and it could easily have gone the other way. It isn't a crisis. It is a finishing and goalkeeping surplus of roughly two goals each way, and that kind of surplus rarely lasts.
Every diagram plays on a loop like a short GIF: the dots are players moving, the white ball travels with the play, and lines trace where the ball and the runners went. Goal diagrams show the scoring team attacking up the page. Use Pause to freeze any moment. Diagrams are reconstructions from match reports and analysis, not tracking data, so positions are approximate.
Facts (line-ups, minutes, stats, quotes) are cross-checked across at least two outlets where possible. xG sources are named in the notes above and in each match. Tactical claims are credited to the outlet that made them. YouTube analyses are linked, not transcribed. Everything under Column is our own analysis.