Tactics Explained
Premier League · 2026/27 · Mikel Arteta · updated 27 Sep

Arsenal

Every Arsenal match of 2026/27, all competitions. Every match gets a full animated analysis.

Tap a highlighted match to open its analysis. The dashed card at the end is the next match's preview.

Looking forward

Next match: Arsenal vs Leeds

Arsenal
v
Leeds
Premier League · Matchday 6Sat 10 Oct 202612:30 BST · 20:30 KSTEmirates Stadium

Leeds arrive fifth and unbeaten, with the one pressing idea that has hurt Arsenal this season.

Win probability

Arsenal win 70% · draw 19% · Leeds win 11%. Expected goals 2.07 – 0.69.

What to watch

  • A runner from the start: Does Arteta start Madueke or Gyökeres to give Leeds' press something to fear, or stick with the control-first front three that lost at Brighton?
  • Raya's goal kicks: Leeds press man-to-man on goal kicks. Going long early, to a target, is the simplest way out.
  • Who replaces Havertz: If Havertz is out, Arsenal lose the drifting movement that unlocked Chelsea. Gyökeres gives a target but less movement.
  • Set pieces: Leeds lead the league in set-piece xG. Arsenal have conceded two set-piece goals in four league games.
  • Congestion: Lille (Champions League) is three days later, then seven games in about 22 days. Expect some rotation.

Leeds: how they play

  • Shape: a back three (3-4-2-1 or 3-5-2) that becomes a 5-2-3 mid-block without the ball (Squawka).
  • Pressing: man-oriented pressure on goal kicks to force long balls, then aggressive stepping onto the opponent's defensive midfielders. This is the same idea that beat Arsenal at Brighton.
  • Set pieces: league-leading 2.47 xG from set pieces, plus Ampadu's long throws. Arsenal have conceded from a free kick (Chelsea) and a corner (Brighton) in the last four PL games.
  • Build-up: Trafford splits the centre-backs. Against a press they go direct; otherwise down the flanks, with Tanaka dropping and the wing-backs pushing high.
  • Key players: Calvert-Lewin (top scorer), Okafor, Tanaka, Ampadu, Trafford.
Looking back

Season so far

Arsenal have created 15.67 xG and scored 16 in 8 games. Opponents: 5.74 xG, 6 goals. In the league, 12 points from 5 games against 10.0 expected.

Premier League, top of the table after Matchday 5

#TeamPGDPts
1Man City5+815
2Arsenal5+412
3Brighton5+1110
4Brentford5+69
5Leeds5+49
6Liverpool5+39

Chances, match by match

Bars: expected goals (xG) created. Rings: actual goals. ■ Arsenal ■ Opponent

Goals vs expected, running total

Solid: actual goals. Dashed: xG. Arsenal in the team colour, opponents in the contrast colour.

League points vs expected points

Expected points: the points the chances deserved, from each Premier League match's xG.

Every result, judged by the chances

DateCompOpponentScorexGW / D / L from the chancesVerdictPre-match model
16 AugCSMan City3–02.19–0.7770% / 18% / 12%Deserved–
21 AugPLCoventry3–01.88–0.2079% / 18% / 3%Deserved–
31 AugPLAston Villa1–01.04–0.3353% / 35% / 12%Deserved–
6 SepPLChelsea2–12.05–0.3977% / 17% / 6%Deserved–
9 SepUCLNapoli1–04.05–0.2297% / 3% / 1%Deserved–
12 SepPLSunderland2–01.88–1.8041% / 22% / 38%Fortunate–
15 SepEFLIpswich4–20.95–0.7239% / 34% / 27%Fortunate–
19 SepPLBrighton0–31.63–1.3145% / 24% / 31%Unlucky–

“W / D / L from the chances” replays each match with the same xG using a Poisson model. Sunderland's figure includes two penalties. Pre-match predictions start with the Leeds match.

Column · 27 Sep 2026

The league has found Arsenal's pressure point. The fix is already in the squad.

Take the season in order. Against City, Coventry, Villa, Chelsea and Napoli, opponents either sat off or defended zonally, and Arsenal's left-side mechanism (Calafiori inside, Tzolis wide, Havertz drifting) produced chance after chance. Then at Sunderland a hybrid man-to-man press squeezed the attack until it ran almost entirely through Ødegaard. Arsenal escaped with a penalty save and a 23-yard strike. A week later Brighton ran the full man-to-man version, and Arsenal had no answer.

The underlying numbers barely moved. Arsenal have out-created every opponent on xG this season: 15.67 created against 5.74 conceded in eight games. What changed was whether the opponent pressed player-for-player, and whether Arsenal had anyone who made that press dangerous for the team doing it.

That is a squad-building consequence. Martinelli, Trossard and Jesus left; Guimarães, Tzolis and Konsa arrived. The team is more controlled and less vertical. Against a zonal block that's an upgrade. Against man-marking, it removes the player who punishes a high line by sprinting behind it. Arsenal still have that type (Madueke, Gyökeres as a target for long balls, Dowman as a dribbler), but none of them started at Brighton.

RiskBrighton have published the blueprint, and Leeds already press man-to-man on goal kicks. Expect more of it in October.
Match by match

Analyses

Arsenal · Premier League · 19 SepBrighton 3–0 Arsenal

Brighton's man-to-man press ends Arsenal's seven-game winning start.

3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column →
Arsenal · Carabao Cup · 15 SepIpswich 2–4 Arsenal

A 16-year-old scores twice as a rotated Arsenal side press its way into round four.

6 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column →
Arsenal · Premier League · 12 SepSunderland 0–2 Arsenal

A penalty save and a 23-yard strike, two minutes apart, win a proper scrap.

3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column →
Arsenal · Champions League · 9 SepNapoli 0–1 Arsenal

26 shots, 4.05 xG and one goal: Ødegaard's strike is the only reward for total dominance in Naples.

1 goal animated · tactic breakdown · column →
Arsenal · Premier League · 6 SepArsenal 2–1 Chelsea

Behind after 77 seconds, Arsenal answer with the best football of their season so far.

3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column →
Arsenal · Premier League · 31 AugAston Villa 0–1 Arsenal

Villa don't manage a single shot on target. One Calafiori run behind the high line is enough.

1 goal animated · tactic breakdown · column →
Arsenal · Premier League · 21 AugArsenal 3–0 Coventry

The champions open with total control: Coventry don't touch the ball in Arsenal's box before half-time.

3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column →
Arsenal · Community Shield · 16 AugArsenal 3–0 Man City

A 23-second opener and two Tzolis assists: Arsenal overrun Maresca's City to start the season.

3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column →
Before you start

How to read the diagrams

Every diagram plays on a loop like a short GIF: the dots are players moving, the white ball travels with the play, and lines trace where the ball and the runners went. Goal diagrams show the scoring team attacking up the page. Use Pause to freeze any moment. Diagrams are reconstructions from match reports and analysis, not tracking data, so positions are approximate.

Method and references

Sources

Facts (line-ups, minutes, stats, quotes) are cross-checked across at least two outlets where possible. xG sources are named in the notes above and in each match. Tactical claims are credited to the outlet that made them. YouTube analyses are linked, not transcribed. Everything under Column is our own analysis.