A penalty save and a 23-yard strike, two minutes apart, win a proper scrap.
The numbers
| Arsenal | Sunderland | |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| Shots | 11 | 12 |
| On target | 5 | 3 |
| xG | 1.88 | 1.8 |
| Corners | 2 | 4 |
| Pass accuracy | 82.9% | 76.4% |
Result the chances deserved: Arsenal win 41%, draw 22%, Sunderland win 38% (Poisson model on each side's xG).
Starting line-ups
Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya, White, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori, Rice, Ødegaard, Lewis-Skelly, Saka, Havertz, Tzolis.
Sunderland (4-3-3): Roefs, Mukiele, Danso, Ballard, Mandava, Xhaka, Sadiki, Le Fée, Meunier, Brobbey, Angulo.
Sunderland subs: Isidor (70'), Fofana (76'), one more at 81'. Sunderland finished with ten men after a stoppage-time red card.
Key moments, move by move
- Le Fée goes low towards the bottom corner. Raya dives to his left, full stretch.
- He pushes it onto the post and away. Two minutes later Arsenal score at the other end.
- Arsenal keep the ball alive around Sunderland's box after a Sunderland attack breaks down. Rice finds Guimarães centrally.
- One touch to set it on his right foot.
- A dipping shot flies into the top corner off the underside of the bar. His first goal for the club came off the bench.
- Deep in stoppage time Saka races clear down the right, holds off Reinildo and is brought down in the box.
- He sends the penalty low to the keeper's left. Roefs guesses right but can't reach it.
Sunderland's hybrid man-marking
- A “hybrid” press: Sunderland marked Arsenal's midfield and front three one-on-one, but left Ødegaard as the free receiver (Dan Harrison, Talking Tactics).
- The trap: the pass into Ødegaard was on, but Xhaka stepped up as soon as it arrived. Arsenal's attack ended up running almost entirely through one player.
- Sunderland's own threat was direct: long throws and balls up to Brobbey. They had more shots (12 to 11) and a penalty.
- Arteta's half-time change (Guimarães for Lewis-Skelly) added a midfielder who shoots from distance. Eleven minutes into the half, that paid off.
What the analysts said
“It's unacceptable… it's a judo roll… it's not a penalty in any game, in any league.” Arteta on the penalty award against Konsa.Mikel Arteta (NBC, Sky Sports)
Sunderland's press “forced Arsenal to play through Ødegaard solely, cutting off Saka, Tzolis and Havertz.”Dan Harrison, Talking Tactics (Yahoo Sports)
Raya was “inspired”; Sunderland were “organised, energetic and tenacious”. The game became a defensive battle that suited Konsa and Gabriel.Arseblog / Arseblog News
“He keeps us alive in the game.”Bruno Guimarães on Raya (NBC)
The warning shot nobody heard.
On xG this was close to a coin flip: 1.88 to 1.80. Take out the penalties (Sunderland's alone was rated 0.92) and it's roughly 1.1 to 0.9 in open play. Arsenal edged it, but not by much. They won because of two moments of individual quality within 121 seconds: Raya's save and Guimarães's strike.
Now look at how Sunderland defended. They man-marked Arsenal's front three and midfield, left Ødegaard free, then jumped on him as soon as he received. It was a softer version of what Brighton did a week later. Arsenal won, so the warning got lost. It should not have.
The positive is Guimarães. His value here was arriving late at the edge of the box and shooting, a weapon Arsenal have lacked against deep blocks. At Brighton, starting deeper and receiving under pressure, he struggled. That tells you where he should play: as the advanced midfielder, with Rice or Zubimendi taking the ball from the centre-backs.