The first league title in 22 years was deserved: Arsenal had the best chance difference in England. But they finished those chances worse than anyone near the top.
Trophies: Premier League · Runners-up: Champions League (PSG, on penalties) · League Cup (Man City)
Solid line: real points. Dashed: points the chances were worth.
Right = better chance difference per game. Up = more points than the chances were worth.
Arsenal took 85 points from chances worth 79.8, the most in the league, so the title was no fluke. They made 1.96 non-penalty xG a game and allowed 0.87: a gap of +1.09 a game, the best in the Premier League.
The surprise is where the extra five points came from. Not the shooting: from open play and set pieces they scored about 14 fewer goals than their chances were worth. They came from the other end, where opponents scored about 8 fewer than their chances were worth, and from winning tight games.
■ npxG · ■ npxGA · Six-match average of non-penalty xG. Gap between the lines = how much better they were.
| Act 1 | Act 2 | Act 3 | Act 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 2.50 | 2.30 | 1.78 | 2.33 |
| Expected | 2.15 | 2.17 | 2.17 | 1.91 |
| Chance diff. | +1.07 | +1.05 | +1.33 | +0.91 |
Acts 1–2 (Aug–early Jan): 2.5 and 2.3 points a game. Chances and results moved together.
Act 3 (Jan–Feb) is the odd one. It was their best spell for chances (+1.33 a game) but brought only 1.78 points a game. This is what a finishing slump looks like in data: the team kept doing the right things and the ball would not go in.
Act 4 (Mar–May): the chance gap shrank (+0.91) as the Champions League run piled up games, but results recovered to 2.33 a game and the title was sealed on 19 May.
This was the league's best defence by chances allowed (100th percentile), and one of its most aggressive presses (PPDA 9.6, 95th). Opponents reached the zone near Arsenal's box only 3.7 times a game, the fewest in England.
The attack was strong too (95th), but built differently from City's. Shot quality was elite (0.139 xG a shot) because so many chances came from right in front of goal.
| When ahead | pushed for more | +7 pp vs avg |
| Right after scoring | about league average | +1 pp vs avg |
| Right after conceding | pushed for more | +9 pp vs avg |
Share of the match’s chances they created in that spell, compared with the rest of the same matches, then compared with the league average.
| Points won from losing positions | 9 |
| Points dropped from winning positions | 9 |
| Goals after 75' (for–against) | 16–9 |
| Home / away points per game | 2.47 / 2.00 |
| Against the top six | 3-2-5 · 1.10 |
Arsenal sat back on leads less than most teams. When ahead, they kept more of the chances than the average side does (+7 percentage points above the league average). Right after conceding, they hit back harder (+9).
The weak spot was the big games: 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats against the other top-six sides (1.10 points a game), with a chance difference of only +0.23 in those matches.
Finishing: -13.9 goals vs xG (non-penalty) · Goalkeeping/defending: +8.5 goals saved vs xG
38% of Arsenal's non-penalty xG came from inside the six-yard box, a huge share. 22% came from set-piece situations, the highest in the league, and 28% came from headers.
That is the corner routine in numbers. It is a reliable source of chances. It may also explain part of the finishing gap: a header in a crowded six-yard box looks like a big chance on paper, but many bodies stand in the way. xG models do not fully see that crowd.
| Player | Goals | xG | Assists | xA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Gyökeres | 14 | 13.9 | 1 | 2.6 |
| Bukayo Saka | 7 | 8.7 | 5 | 8.6 |
| Leandro Trossard | 6 | 6.8 | 6 | 5.0 |
| Declan Rice | 4 | 3.7 | 5 | 8.2 |
| Jurriën Timber | 3 | 4.0 | 5 | 2.6 |
| Eberechi Eze · joined during the season | 7 | 4.6 | – | – |
| Mikel Merino | 4 | 5.2 | 3 | 2.3 |
| Gabriel | 3 | 4.6 | 4 | 2.7 |
Chief creators (xA): Bukayo Saka 8.6 · Declan Rice 8.2 · Leandro Trossard 5.0
Build-up engines (xGBuildup): Declan Rice 13.0 · Martín Zubimendi 11.2 · William Saliba 10.5
In his first season, Viktor Gyökeres scored 14 league goals from 13.9 xG, exactly what his chances were worth.
Declan Rice created 8.2 xA, almost as much as Saka (8.6), and was the squad's biggest build-up contributor. Eberechi Eze was the one forward who finished well above his chances: 7 goals from 4.6 xG.
Saka (7 goals from 8.7 xG), Martinelli (1 from 5.4) and Havertz (2 from 4.9) account for much of the finishing gap.
Arsenal won the league with a simple formula: allow almost nothing and win the set-piece battle. That formula travels well, because it does not need a striker on a hot streak.
For 2026/27 there are two pulls in opposite directions. A team that creates this much but finishes 14 goals below its chances usually drifts back towards average. If that happens, the points could rise even if the football stays the same. At the back, the pull runs the other way: an 8-goal goalkeeping surplus is hard to repeat.
The record against the top six (1.10 points a game) is the gap between a champion and a dominant champion.
League matches only. Expected points come from the shots each side created; luck and finishing quality both live in the gap.