Seven clubs, one season: what the results said, what the chances said, and what each club takes into 2026/27.
| Club | Pts | xPts | Diff./game | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 85 1st | 79.8 | +1.09 | +5.2 |
| Man City | 78 2nd | 74.0 | +0.83 | +4.0 |
| Man United | 71 3rd | 64.4 | +0.54 | +6.6 |
| Liverpool | 60 5th | 61.5 | +0.39 | −1.5 |
| Real Madrid | 86 2nd | 76.0 | +0.76 | +10.0 |
| Barcelona | 94 1st | 79.1 | +1.19 | +14.9 |
| Bayern | 89 1st | 77.5 | +1.57 | +11.5 |
League matches only. Expected points come from the shots each side created; luck and finishing quality both live in the gap.
The first league title in 22 years was deserved: Arsenal had the best chance difference in England. But they finished those chances worse than anyone near the top.
1st · 85 pts · Expected points 79.8 · Read the review →2025/26Manchester City · Season reviewThe best attack in England, shaken by every goalCity made more chances than anyone in the league and won both domestic cups in Guardiola's last season. The title slipped away in the minutes after goals: 20 points were dropped from winning positions.
2nd · 78 pts · Expected points 74.0 · Read the review →2025/26Manchester United · Season reviewSame chances, different results: the Carrick bounce in numbersUnited finished third and returned to the Champions League. The jump after the coaching change was real in points but not in chances: Carrick's side created and allowed about the same as Amorim's.
3rd · 71 pts · Expected points 64.4 · Read the review →2025/26Liverpool · Season reviewSlow to start, soft to finishThe champions' defence ended in fifth place. Liverpool's chances were good enough for fourth, so the drop was not mainly bad luck. They rarely scored early, conceded late, and the final two months fell apart.
5th · 60 pts · Expected points 61.5 · Read the review →2025/26Real Madrid · Season review86 points, no trophies, and an attack that fadedMadrid's points total would win many leagues, but it ran 10 points ahead of the chances. Under Arbeloa the attack made far fewer chances than under Alonso, and Courtois' end of the pitch kept the results afloat.
2nd · 86 pts · Expected points 76.0 · Read the review →2025/26FC Barcelona · Season reviewA perfect home record, a fearless high line and a goalkeeperBarcelona were the best team in Spain by a distance and won all 19 home league games. Their 94 points ran 15 ahead of the chances, the biggest gap of our seven clubs, and almost all of it came from the goalkeeper and defence, not the finishing.
1st · 94 pts · Expected points 79.1 · Read the review →2025/26FC Bayern München · Season review122 goals and one defeat: a season of total controlBayern broke the Bundesliga scoring record and lost one league game all season. They were the only club of our seven to score more goals than their chances were worth, mostly through Harry Kane, and the one that came back from behind most often.
1st · 89 pts · Expected points 77.5 · Read the review →