Bayern broke the Bundesliga scoring record and lost one league game all season. They were the only club of our seven to score more goals than their chances were worth, mostly through Harry Kane, and the one that came back from behind most often.
Trophies: Bundesliga · DFB-Pokal · Champions League: semi-final (PSG)
Solid line: real points. Dashed: points the chances were worth.
Right = better chance difference per game. Up = more points than the chances were worth.
Bayern took 89 points from 34 games, from chances worth 77.5. They made 2.82 non-penalty xG a game and had a chance difference of +1.57 a game, both the best of any team in this review.
Unlike the other six clubs, Bayern also finished above their chances: about 11 goals more than expected, non-penalty. The goalkeeper and defence added about 9 more. Both ends ran hot, and the result was a record 122 goals.
■ npxG · ■ npxGA · Six-match average of non-penalty xG. Gap between the lines = how much better they were.
| Act 1 | Act 2 | Act 3 | Act 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 3.00 | 2.56 | 2.12 | 2.75 |
| Expected | 2.69 | 2.54 | 1.87 | 1.93 |
| Chance diff. | +2.05 | +2.00 | +0.60 | +1.52 |
Acts 1–2 (Aug–mid Jan): overwhelming. 3.0, then 2.56 points a game, with a chance gap of about +2 a game. Most teams never reach that in a single match.
Act 3 (late Jan–mid Mar): the one dip. The chance gap fell to +0.60 and the points to 2.12 a game. Even then, they lost only once in the league all season.
Act 4 (Mar–May): back to 2.75 points a game. The title was clinched on 19 April, and the DFB-Pokal followed on 23 May with a 3-0 win over Stuttgart and a Kane hat-trick.
Bayern had the best attack, the most entries near the opponent's goal (13.9 a game) and the best defence against box entries in Germany. Nobody could press them (100th percentile), and they pressed hard themselves (PPDA 9.1, 94th).
They also had the best shot quality in the league (0.151 xG a shot). Bayern did not take more bad shots. They took more good ones.
| When ahead | pushed for more | +11 pp vs avg |
| Right after scoring | pushed for more | +16 pp vs avg |
| Right after conceding | about league average | +0 pp vs avg |
Share of the match’s chances they created in that spell, compared with the rest of the same matches, then compared with the league average.
| Points won from losing positions | 29 |
| Points dropped from winning positions | 7 |
| Goals after 75' (for–against) | 35–11 |
| Home / away points per game | 2.59 / 2.65 |
| Against the top six | 9-1-0 · 2.80 |
This is the team that hurt you most after scoring. In the 15 minutes after a Bayern goal, their share of the chances rose by about 15 points more than the average team's. They went for the second goal immediately.
They also came back better than anyone: 29 points won from losing positions, and goals after the 75th minute ran 35 to 11 in their favour.
Finishing: +10.9 goals vs xG (non-penalty) · Goalkeeping/defending: +9.2 goals saved vs xG
Bayern's chances came from passing moves (the biggest share in Germany) and through balls (83rd percentile). Set pieces (6th percentile) and headers (6th) made up the smallest shares in the league.
Put simply, Bayern played through teams on the ground and needed neither corners nor crosses.
| Player | Goals | xG | Assists | xA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 36 | 29.6 | 5 | 7.4 |
| Michael Olise | 15 | 11.5 | 19 | 17.0 |
| Luis Díaz | 15 | 14.9 | 14 | 10.1 |
| Serge Gnabry | 8 | 6.3 | 6 | 5.2 |
| Konrad Laimer | 3 | 2.8 | 9 | 5.0 |
| Lennart Karl | 5 | 7.1 | 5 | 2.8 |
| Joshua Kimmich | 2 | 2.4 | 8 | 7.6 |
| Nicolas Jackson | 8 | 8.5 | 1 | 2.1 |
Chief creators (xA): Michael Olise 17.0 · Luis Díaz 10.1 · Joshua Kimmich 7.6
Build-up engines (xGBuildup): Joshua Kimmich 21.9 · Michael Olise 17.0 · Josip Stanišić 15.5
Harry Kane scored 36 league goals from 29.6 xG. Ten were penalties, and even without them he scored 26 from 21.2 npxG: elite finishing on top of elite volume.
Michael Olise had 15 goals and 19 assists (17.0 xA), the best creator in this review. Luis Díaz, in his first season, added 15 goals and 14 assists.
Joshua Kimmich led the squad in build-up involvement by a wide margin, with Olise and Josip Stanišić next.
Bayern's season is the clearest example in this review of a team that deserved everything. They had the best chances, the best chance quality and the best finishing, and they came back better than anyone. Vincent Kompany's side made almost no trade-offs.
The Champions League semi-final against PSG (5-6 on aggregate) shows the ceiling. Against a team that can match their pressing, the record-breaking machine became a coin flip.
For 2026/27, the natural pull is down, not up: an 11-goal finishing surplus and a 9-goal goalkeeping surplus rarely happen together twice. But even with average luck, the chance numbers point to another title.
League matches only. Expected points come from the shots each side created; luck and finishing quality both live in the gap.