Flick's high line and the Clásico, explained. Big matches get a full animated analysis; every match gets its score, xG and a graded prediction.
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Getafe have scored four goals in seven games. The bigger worry for Barça is what the international break has done to their back line.
Barcelona win 87% · draw 9% · Getafe win 4%. Expected goals 3.14 – 0.56.
Barcelona have created 30.62 xG and scored 36 in 8 games. Opponents: 8.15 xG, 8 goals. In the league, 21 points from 7 games against 18.1 expected.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | +5 | 11 |
Bars: expected goals (xG) created. Rings: actual goals. ■ Barcelona ■ Opponent
Solid: actual goals. Dashed: xG. Barcelona in the team colour, opponents in the contrast colour.
Expected points: the points the chances deserved, from each LaLiga match's xG.
| Date | Comp | Opponent | Score | xG | W / D / L from the chances | Verdict | Pre-match model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug | LL | Elche | 5–0 | 4.38–0.70 | 93% / 5% / 2% | Deserved | – |
| 27 Aug | LL | Athletic Club | 2–0 | 4.23–0.25 | 97% / 3% / 1% | Deserved | – |
| 31 Aug | LL | Rayo Vallecano | 5–2 | 3.04–1.21 | 74% / 14% / 12% | Deserved | – |
| 6 Sep | LL | Valencia | 5–0 | 4.08–0.66 | 92% / 5% / 2% | Deserved | – |
| 9 Sep | UCL | Feyenoord | 5–1 | 2.10–0.53 | 74% / 18% / 8% | Deserved | – |
| 13 Sep | LL | Levante | 4–2 | 2.58–2.42 | 44% / 18% / 38% | Fortunate | – |
| 16 Sep | LL | Racing Santander | 7–2 | 6.74–1.98 | 93% / 4% / 3% | Deserved | – |
| 19 Sep | LL | Sevilla | 3–1 | 3.47–0.40 | 92% / 6% / 2% | Deserved | – |
“W / D / L from the chances” replays each match with the same xG using a Poisson model. xG: FotMob (Opta data), all competitions. Penalties: Raphinha (Elche, Racing ×2), Yamal (Levante). Own goals: Rayo (Lejeune), Racing (Villalibre). Kick-offs from fcbarcelona.com; Alavés time provisional (FotMob).
Barcelona have won all eight competitive games, 36–8 on aggregate, and they are five points clear after seven LaLiga rounds. The chances back it up. In the league they are creating 4.07 xG a game and allowing 1.09 (FotMob). Last season's title side created 2.27 and allowed 1.22. They have scored 36 from 30.6 xG in all competitions, and two of those were own goals, so the finishing is only slightly hot. This is not a team riding its luck.
The big change is up front. With Lewandowski gone, Flick moved Raphinha into the middle, and he has 12 league goals in seven games, including hat-tricks against Racing and Sevilla. Yamal is supplying him from the right, and he set up both second-half goals in Seville. The defence is the part to watch. Levante (2.42 xG against) and Racing (1.98) both got plenty of chances, and at Sevilla Flick himself said the first half wasn't good enough. When opponents break quickly and play direct, the space behind Flick's high line is still there.
Also look at who they've played. The best side Barcelona have met is Sevilla, currently fifth; none of the other top-six teams yet. That changes now: Getafe, then Galatasaray, Betis, PSG and Real Madrid in 15 days. Christensen is out for several weeks with a thigh injury, Eric García came home from Spain duty with a sore knee, and goalkeeper Joan García is out with a knee injury (FotMob expects him back in early October). In other words, the hardest run of games arrives just as the right side of the defence is weakest.
Every diagram plays on a loop like a short GIF: the dots are players moving, the white ball travels with the play, and lines trace where the ball and the runners went. Goal diagrams show the scoring team attacking up the page. Use Pause to freeze any moment. Diagrams are reconstructions from match reports and analysis, not tracking data, so positions are approximate.
Facts (line-ups, minutes, stats, quotes) are cross-checked across at least two outlets where possible. xG sources are named in the notes above and in each match. Tactical claims are credited to the outlet that made them. YouTube analyses are linked, not transcribed. Everything under Column is our own analysis.