Barcelona were the best team in Spain by a distance and won all 19 home league games. Their 94 points ran 15 ahead of the chances, the biggest gap of our seven clubs, and almost all of it came from the goalkeeper and defence, not the finishing.
Trophies: La Liga · Supercopa de España · Champions League: quarter-final (Atlético) · Copa del Rey: semi-final (Atlético)
Solid line: real points. Dashed: points the chances were worth.
Right = better chance difference per game. Up = more points than the chances were worth.
Barcelona took 94 points from chances worth 79.1. Both were the best in Spain, so the title was fully deserved. But the margin, +14.9, is the largest of our seven clubs.
The finishing was actually below par (about 7 goals fewer than expected, non-penalty). The gap came from the other end: opponents scored about 16 fewer goals than their chances were worth. That is the biggest goalkeeping surplus in this review.
■ npxG · ■ npxGA · Six-match average of non-penalty xG. Gap between the lines = how much better they were.
| Act 1 | Act 2 | Act 3 | Act 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 2.20 | 2.70 | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| Expected | 1.90 | 2.35 | 2.19 | 1.87 |
| Chance diff. | +0.93 | +1.39 | +1.70 | +0.75 |
Act 1 (Aug–Oct): a good start (2.2 points a game, +0.93 chance gap).
Acts 2–3 (Nov–Mar): the peak. 2.7 and 2.67 points a game, with the chance gap reaching +1.70 a game in Act 3, the best spell of any club in this review except Bayern. The Supercopa was won 3-2 against Real Madrid on 11 January.
Act 4 (Apr–May): the chances dipped (+0.75) around the Champions League exit to Atlético, but the title was clinched with a 2-0 win over Real Madrid on 10 May.
This was Spain's most intense press (PPDA 7.1, top of the league) and the team that was hardest to press back (100th percentile). Barcelona also made more chances and reached the box more often than anyone in Spain.
The trade-off was at the back: by chances allowed, the defence ranked lower (74th percentile) than Real Madrid's. A high line gives up some chances, and the goalkeeper had to cover them.
| When ahead | pushed for more | +19 pp vs avg |
| Right after scoring | sat back | −6 pp vs avg |
| Right after conceding | pushed for more | +9 pp vs avg |
Share of the match’s chances they created in that spell, compared with the rest of the same matches, then compared with the league average.
| Points won from losing positions | 21 |
| Points dropped from winning positions | 8 |
| Goals after 75' (for–against) | 20–8 |
| Home / away points per game | 3.00 / 1.95 |
| Against the top six | 9-0-1 · 2.70 |
Barcelona did not slow down when ahead. Their share of the chances rose when leading, about 19 points more than the average team in Spain, which tends to sit back. They also hit back hard after conceding (+9).
That shows in the results: 21 points won from losing positions, and only 8 dropped from winning ones. At home they won all 19 league games.
Finishing: -6.6 goals vs xG (non-penalty) · Goalkeeping/defending: +15.9 goals saved vs xG
The press fed the attack: chances from winning the ball back were a bigger share for Barcelona than for anyone in Spain, and they had more shots straight after a regain per game than nearly anyone (98th percentile).
Through balls (85th) and dribbles (80th) were big sources too. Headers and set pieces were small ones: Barcelona scored by playing, not by crossing.
| Player | Goals | xG | Assists | xA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | 16 | 14.7 | 11 | 12.6 |
| Ferran Torres | 16 | 16.2 | 2 | 3.2 |
| Robert Lewandowski | 14 | 16.1 | 2 | 2.3 |
| Raphinha | 13 | 11.1 | 3 | 5.9 |
| Marcus Rashford | 8 | 8.7 | 7 | 5.0 |
| Dani Olmo | 7 | 8.8 | 8 | 6.7 |
| Fermín López | 6 | 7.5 | 9 | 7.7 |
| Pedri | 2 | 2.4 | 9 | 6.0 |
Chief creators (xA): Lamine Yamal 12.6 · Fermín López 7.7 · Dani Olmo 6.7
Build-up engines (xGBuildup): Eric Garcia 23.6 · Pedri 19.4 · Pau Cubarsí 18.9
Lamine Yamal had 16 goals and 11 assists with 12.6 xA, the club's best creator. Ferran Torres scored 16 from 16.2 xG, and Robert Lewandowski 14 from 16.1.
Raphinha scored 13 in just 1,424 minutes. Marcus Rashford added 8 goals and 7 assists, and Fermín López 9 assists.
The build-up ran through Eric García, the most involved player in the squad, with Pedri and Pau Cubarsí next. A centre-back topping the list says a lot about how far up the pitch Barcelona's defenders played.
Flick's Barcelona are built on a simple bet: press hard, defend high, and accept that some balls in behind will get through. This season the bet paid off because the chances that did get through were saved far more often than average.
That part is unlikely to repeat in full. Even if the goalkeeping returns to normal, this is still the best chance-difference team in Spain (+1.19 a game). But 94 points would become something closer to 80. That is enough to compete for the title, though not enough to win it at a stroll.
The European exit to Atlético is the warning: in a two-legged tie against a team built to attack space behind a high line, a goalkeeper cannot save everything.
League matches only. Expected points come from the shots each side created; luck and finishing quality both live in the gap.