City made more chances than anyone in the league and won both domestic cups in Guardiola's last season. The title slipped away in the minutes after goals: 20 points were dropped from winning positions.
Trophies: League Cup · FA Cup · League: 2nd · Champions League: last 16 (Real Madrid)
Solid line: real points. Dashed: points the chances were worth.
Right = better chance difference per game. Up = more points than the chances were worth.
City took 78 points from chances worth 74.0, second on both counts. Second place was a fair reflection of the football. They made 2.01 non-penalty xG a game, the most in England, but Arsenal allowed far less.
Like Arsenal, City finished below their chances (about 7 goals fewer than expected, non-penalty), and the goalkeeper and defence saved them about 13 goals. The extra 4 points came from the back.
■ npxG · ■ npxGA · Six-match average of non-penalty xG. Gap between the lines = how much better they were.
| Act 1 | Act 2 | Act 3 | Act 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 1.90 | 2.30 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Expected | 2.00 | 1.94 | 1.92 | 1.92 |
| Chance diff. | +1.02 | +0.78 | +0.51 | +0.99 |
Act 1 (Aug–Oct): 1.9 points a game with a big chance gap (+1.02). A slow start in results, not in football.
Act 2 (Nov–early Jan): the best run for results (2.3 a game), even though the chance gap had narrowed (+0.78).
Act 3 (Jan–early Mar) was the weak spell for chances (+0.51 a game). Act 4 brought the gap back to +0.99 and the League Cup (2-0 against Arsenal on 22 March), but league results stayed at 2.0 a game. The gap to Arsenal was never closed.
City's attack ranked top in the league for chances made and for reaching the box (10.8 entries a game near the opponent's area). The defence was second-tier elite (95th).
City pressed less than Arsenal (PPDA 10.7, around the league middle) and relied on control of the ball instead. They completed more passes close to the opponent's goal than anyone.
| When ahead | about league average | −1 pp vs avg |
| Right after scoring | sat back | −6 pp vs avg |
| Right after conceding | sat back | −10 pp vs avg |
Share of the match’s chances they created in that spell, compared with the rest of the same matches, then compared with the league average.
| Points won from losing positions | 5 |
| Points dropped from winning positions | 20 |
| Goals after 75' (for–against) | 13–7 |
| Home / away points per game | 2.37 / 1.74 |
| Against the top six | 5-2-3 · 1.70 |
Here is the story of the season. City dropped 20 points from winning positions, the most of the seven clubs we follow, and won back only 5 from losing positions.
In the 15 minutes after conceding, City's share of the chances fell by about 10 points more than the average team's. After scoring, it fell too (−6). Goals in either direction seemed to knock them out of rhythm.
Finishing: -7.1 goals vs xG (non-penalty) · Goalkeeping/defending: +13.1 goals saved vs xG
City's chances were the most central in England: 59% of their non-penalty xG came from the middle of the box. Through balls and dribbles created a bigger share of chances than at any other club in the league.
The flip side: crosses (5th percentile) and set pieces (10th percentile for share) mattered little, and only 16% of their xG came from headers. City played through teams, not over them.
| Player | Goals | xG | Assists | xA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 27 | 28.8 | 8 | 5.5 |
| Mathis Cherki | 4 | 4.6 | 12 | 10.8 |
| Phil Foden | 7 | 6.7 | 5 | 6.1 |
| Jérémy Doku | 5 | 4.0 | 5 | 7.5 |
| Nico O'Reilly | 5 | 6.7 | 3 | 3.9 |
| Antoine Semenyo · joined during the season | 7 | 4.9 | – | – |
| Tijjani Reijnders | 5 | 4.9 | 2 | 3.1 |
| Omar Marmoush | 3 | 3.8 | 3 | 2.1 |
Chief creators (xA): Mathis Cherki 10.8 · Jérémy Doku 7.5 · Phil Foden 6.1
Build-up engines (xGBuildup): Matheus Nunes 20.3 · Bernardo Silva 19.4 · Nico O'Reilly 14.8
Erling Haaland scored 27 league goals from 28.8 xG. He was reliable, though not above his chances.
Mathis Cherki was the creative find: 12 assists and 10.8 xA in under 1,800 minutes. Jérémy Doku (7.5 xA) and Phil Foden (7 goals, 6.1 xA) completed the creative trio.
Matheus Nunes and Bernardo Silva led the squad in build-up involvement. Antoine Semenyo, who joined during the season, scored 7 from 4.9 xG for City and won the FA Cup final.
City's football in Guardiola's final season still produced the best attack in England. What it lost was control of the scoreboard. A team that makes this many chances should not drop 20 points from winning positions.
Enzo Maresca inherits a side whose problem is not chance creation. The work is in the minutes after a goal: who holds the ball, who protects the counter, and how quickly the shape resets.
The cup double shows the ceiling is still high. The league numbers show where the next coach can find points without changing the attack at all.
League matches only. Expected points come from the shots each side created; luck and finishing quality both live in the gap.