The champions' defence ended in fifth place. Liverpool's chances were good enough for fourth, so the drop was not mainly bad luck. They rarely scored early, conceded late, and the final two months fell apart.
Trophies: None · Champions League: quarter-final (PSG) · Community Shield: lost on penalties (Crystal Palace)
Solid line: real points. Dashed: points the chances were worth.
Right = better chance difference per game. Up = more points than the chances were worth.
Liverpool took 60 points from chances worth 61.5, fourth-best in the league by chances. This is the only one of our seven clubs that finished below its chances, but only by 1.5 points. The season was roughly what the football deserved.
Finishing was below par (about 6 goals fewer than expected, non-penalty), and unlike the clubs above them, the goalkeeping gave little back (+1.8). There was no cushion.
■ npxG · ■ npxGA · Six-match average of non-penalty xG. Gap between the lines = how much better they were.
| Act 1 | Act 2 | Act 3 | Act 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 1.80 | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.33 |
| Expected | 1.56 | 1.86 | 1.89 | 1.14 |
| Chance diff. | +0.28 | +0.77 | +0.89 | −0.39 |
Act 1 (Aug–Oct): 1.8 points a game from chances worth 1.56. The early results flattered a team that was not yet creating much (+0.28 chance gap).
Acts 2–3 (Nov–early Mar): the football improved (+0.77, then +0.89) but results went the other way (1.6, then 1.56). This was the unlucky spell.
Act 4 (mid-Mar–May) is the collapse: 1.33 points a game and, for the first time, a negative chance gap (−0.39). Opponents created more than Liverpool. That is not luck. The team ran out of answers as the European exit to PSG came and went.
Liverpool got the ball into dangerous areas very often (9.8 times a game near the opponent's goal, 95th percentile), and were hard to press (79th).
But the chances were not great ones: shots came from further out than at most clubs (median 16.9 m) and shot quality sat below average (0.114 xG a shot).
| When ahead | about league average | −4 pp vs avg |
| Right after scoring | about league average | −3 pp vs avg |
| Right after conceding | pushed for more | +4 pp vs avg |
Share of the match’s chances they created in that spell, compared with the rest of the same matches, then compared with the league average.
| Points won from losing positions | 5 |
| Points dropped from winning positions | 15 |
| Goals after 75' (for–against) | 20–17 |
| Home / away points per game | 1.89 / 1.26 |
| Against the top six | 3-1-6 · 1.00 |
Liverpool conceded 17 goals after the 75th minute, the most of our seven clubs. They dropped 15 points from winning positions and won back only 5 from losing ones.
When ahead, they backed off more than the average team (−4 points of chance share vs the league). Starts were slow too: only 8% of their open-play xG came in the first 15 minutes, among the lowest in the league.
Finishing: -6.3 goals vs xG (non-penalty) · Goalkeeping/defending: +1.8 goals saved vs xG
The best part of their attack was winning the ball back: chances created straight from a regain made up a bigger share for Liverpool than for any other team in England. Passing moves were also the league's biggest share.
The missing piece was set pieces. They made up just 17.5% of Liverpool's chances, the 5th percentile. For a team struggling to break blocks, that is a big source of goals left on the table.
| Player | Goals | xG | Assists | xA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Ekitike | 11 | 11.9 | 4 | 2.5 |
| Mohamed Salah | 7 | 8.8 | 7 | 6.4 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | 6 | 4.7 | 7 | 8.8 |
| Cody Gakpo | 7 | 9.8 | 5 | 6.6 |
| Florian Wirtz | 5 | 7.6 | 3 | 5.4 |
| Ryan Gravenberch | 5 | 1.5 | 3 | 2.4 |
| Virgil van Dijk | 6 | 4.9 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 2 | 4.1 | 4 | 2.9 |
Chief creators (xA): Dominik Szoboszlai 8.8 · Cody Gakpo 6.6 · Mohamed Salah 6.4
Build-up engines (xGBuildup): Dominik Szoboszlai 15.1 · Virgil van Dijk 11.4 · Ibrahima Konaté 10.8
In his first season, Hugo Ekitike scored 11 from 11.9 xG, the most reliable finisher. Florian Wirtz, also new, scored 5 from 7.6 xG with 5.4 xA: good numbers, but not yet the step-change the fee promised.
Mohamed Salah had 7 goals and 7 assists, well below his usual level. Dominik Szoboszlai was the engine: 8.8 xA, the most build-up involvement in the squad and minutes across several positions.
Ryan Gravenberch scored 5 from just 1.5 xG, and Virgil van Dijk 6 from 4.9.
Liverpool's problem was not one thing. It was three small leaks: slow starts, a weak set-piece threat and goals conceded late. Together they turned a fourth-place team into a fifth-place one, and the last two months into a slide.
Andoni Iraola arrives with a reputation for intense, front-foot pressing. The base suits him: this squad already wins the ball back and shoots from regains more than anyone. The quick gains are in the boring parts: set-piece routines and the last 15 minutes.
The bigger question is the attack's quality. Plenty of entries but long-range shots means the final pass or run is missing. That is where Wirtz's second season matters.
League matches only. Expected points come from the shots each side created; luck and finishing quality both live in the gap.