3.46 xG, a post, a crossbar, two blocks on the line and a saved penalty: Real Madrid's first defeat under Mourinho came from one Real Betis corner.
The numbers
| Real Madrid | Real Betis | |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | 58% | 42% |
| Shots | 20 | 10 |
| xG | 3.46 | 0.93 |
| Touches in opp. box | 51 | 18 |
Result the chances deserved: Real Madrid 84% / 10% / Real Betis 6% (Poisson).
Starting line-ups
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1): Courtois, Dumfries, Konaté, Huijsen, Cucurella, Valverde, Camavinga, Güler, Bellingham, Vinícius Jr, Mbappé.
Real Betis (4-2-3-1): Vallés, Bellerín, Llorente, Natan, Fran García, Roca, Bernal, Antony, Isco, Fornals, Cucho Hernández.
Real Betis subs: Bartra (39', Llorente, injured), Fidalgo (60', Isco), Deossa & Parrott (68', Bernal & Cucho Hernández), Riquelme (77', Antony). Real Betis manager: Manuel Pellegrini. Mbappé's stoppage-time penalty, for Natan's foul on Vinícius, was saved by Vallés (FotMob lists it at 90+9'; most reports say the 94th or 95th minute). Espí had a late overhead finish ruled out for offside. Opta's xG for Madrid (beIN) was 3.16; we use FotMob's 3.46.
Key moments, move by move
- Real Betis win a corner.
- Deossa, on for 13 minutes, heads it towards goal and Courtois parries it.
- Courtois can't push it wide. Parrott, also a substitute, reacts first and scores from close range.
Güler creates, Bellerín stops Vinícius
- Güler ran the attack: seven chances created, the most in the match (beIN), most of them in the first half from the right. Real Madrid had 20 shots, 51 touches in the Real Betis box and, by SI's count, seven big chances.
- Bellerín beat Vinícius: the Real Betis right-back won eight of his 14 duels and six of seven tackles, both match highs (beIN). Vinícius still created four chances (SI) but hit the post from six yards after 15 minutes.
- The 64th-minute changes: Mourinho took off Güler, Camavinga and Dumfries. He said it was to remove players on yellow cards, to let Diomande play wide and because 'it's better to play with Trent inside than with Dumfries'. Diomande had 13 touches (SI), and Real Madrid's best chance creator was on the bench for the last half-hour.
- Real Betis: Pellegrini's side defended deep in a 4-2-3-1 and broke through Antony and Cucho Hernández. Vallés, the man of the match on FotMob, made the key saves, Natan and Bartra blocked Mbappé twice on the line before half-time, and the winner came from a corner.
Recreate it in FM26
Real Madrid's 4-2-3-1 through Güler on the right
| Pos | Player | In Possession | Out of Possession |
|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Courtois | Goalkeeper | Line-Holding Keeper |
| RB | Dumfries | Wing-Back | Full-Back |
| RCB | Konaté | Centre-Back | Stopping Centre-Back |
| LCB | Huijsen | Ball-Playing Centre-Back | Covering Centre-Back |
| LB | Cucurella | Full-Back | Holding Full-Back |
| RDM | Valverde | Defensive Midfielder | Pressing Defensive Midfielder |
| LDM | Camavinga | Deep-Lying Playmaker | Screening Defensive Midfielder |
| RW | Güler | Wide Playmaker | Tracking Winger |
| AM | Bellingham | Attacking Midfielder | Central Outlet Attacking Midfielder |
| LW | Vinícius Jr | Winger | Wide Outlet Winger |
| ST | Mbappé | Centre Forward | Central Outlet Centre Forward |
Team instructions
In Possession
- Passing DirectnessShorter
- Progress ThroughRight
- Attacking WidthWider
- PatienceWork Ball Into Box
- Crossing StyleBalanced
Out of Possession
- Line of EngagementMid Block
- Defensive TransitionCounter-Press
- TacklingStandard
The idea: The play goes through the right, where Güler as a Wide Playmaker finds the runs of Bellingham, Mbappé and the far-side Vinícius. You need a left-footed creator on the right and a deep midfielder, here Camavinga, to feed him.
What FM26 can't copy: This match is a lesson in variance: FM26 will reproduce the chances, not the 0–1.
Our reading of this match in FM26 terms, not an exported tactic file. Role names as in FM26.
What if? Replay it with a different plan
Our best alternative plan: Keep Güler on: Diomande for Vinícius at 65', Espí on at 70' (for Valverde). Keep Güler on, take off Vinícius instead and add Espí earlier. On a night of 3.46 xG this probably still needed Vallés to have an off night, but it keeps Real Madrid's best chance creator on the pitch. It moves Real Madrid's win chance from 84% to 86% (xG 3.46–0.93 becomes 3.71–0.98). Try your own changes to formation, pressing, approach and substitutions.
The game-changer Real Madrid needed
Antonio Rüdiger
Real Madrid conceded one goal, from a corner: Deossa's header, Courtois's parry and a rebound. Konaté won one of six duels and was booked. Rüdiger is strong in the air and at set pieces, the one area where Real Betis beat them. Two weeks later he scored a header from a free kick against Atlético de Madrid.
Harry Kane
Real Madrid made 3.46 xG of chances and scored none. Mbappé had 1.78 xG from seven shots and missed a stoppage-time penalty. Kane, the Bundesliga's top scorer three seasons running (FC Bayern), is one of the most reliable finishers and penalty takers in Europe. He also drops deep to create, which would have eased the loss of Güler after the 64th minute.
What the analysts said
“Sometimes you lose and don't know why or how to explain it.”José Mourinho (realmadrid.com)
“I didn't make the changes because I wasn't happy with the team but to take players off who had yellow cards and to allow Diomande to play wide.”José Mourinho (realmadrid.com)
“Congratulations to Betis, who played for a draw and hit the jackpot.”José Mourinho (Yahoo Sports)
“We capitalized on our chances and they didn't.”Manuel Pellegrini (Goal)
Mostly bad luck, with one decision worth questioning.
The numbers are extreme. Real Madrid had 3.46 xG to 0.93 (FotMob; Opta's figure was 3.16), 20 shots to 10 and 51 touches in the Real Betis box to 18. Mbappé alone had 1.78 xG from seven shots (beIN). Vinícius hit the post, Huijsen hit the bar, Natan and Bartra blocked on the line, Espí had a goal ruled out for offside, and Vallés saved a stoppage-time penalty. Betis scored from a rebound after a corner. Over a large number of games, Madrid win this match most of the time.
The decision worth questioning is the triple change at 64'. Mourinho's reasons were fair: Güler and Camavinga were on yellow cards, and he wanted Alexander-Arnold's passing from inside. But Güler had created seven chances, more than anyone on the pitch, and Mourinho himself said it was 'difficult' to take him off. Diomande, his replacement, had 13 touches. Real Madrid kept shooting after that, but the best chance creator had gone.
The rest is finishing and one set piece. Pellegrini said Real Betis took their chances and Real Madrid didn't, which is accurate. It is not a sign that Madrid's plan is failing. The warning is smaller: Bellerín won most of his duels with Vinícius, so a strong, disciplined right-back can take away one of Madrid's two main outlets.